True freshman breakout wide receivers are emerging quickly for Ohio State, Alabama, Texas, Clemson, and Auburn
The 2024 college football season somehow has already reached Week 3. Each week we learn more about who the best teams and players in the nation truly are. And so far, there is already an uncommon number of true freshman wide receivers making huge impacts, potentially posting incredible breakout seasons this year.Usually there are only […]
The 2024 college football season somehow has already reached Week 3. Each week we learn more about who the best teams and players in the nation truly are. And so far, there is already an uncommon number of true freshman wide receivers making huge impacts, potentially posting incredible breakout seasons this year.
Usually there are only a handful of young wide receivers who break through into the rotation immediately to open their first college football season, but this year there are at least a dozen power conference playmakers standing out. Who are these young stars-in-the-making that could change the landscape of college football in the coming years? Let's dive in.
Potential Breakout True Freshman Wide Receiver Stars
What is a "breakout" season exactly when it comes to a true freshman? That's up for debate. But what isn't is how atypical it is to see a dozen or more receivers reach even low level thresholds of production early on. Below are the 12 wide receivers who have at least 50 all-purpose yards, 20+ snaps of offense, and 3+ receptions through two games.
[What are some of those key stats listed above? Beyond the obvious, "Rec Yd MS" stands for receiving yard market share, or percentage of team receiving yards. "Rec TD MS" is the same, except for team receiving touchdowns. "Rec Yds/PA" is receiving yards per team pass attempt. It's the single most predictive independent production variable for wide receivers translating to the pros. And lastly, "Wtd Dominator Rating" is weighted dominator rating. It is a combination of the percent of team receiving yards and touchdowns a player accounts for within their offense".]
Many college football fans are likely already familiar with a few of the names near the top, as Jeremiah Smith and Ryan Williams have been predicted to making early impacts for several months now. However, a few of the names are quite surprising, and did not make many (if any) preseason "breakout" watch lists.
Tier 1 Wide Receiver Breakout Potential
There are two distinct groups among these early breakout wide receiver candidates. Tier 1 breakouts are already among the top 2-3 wide receivers on their team in both opportunities and yards who play the vast majority of their team's snaps. Tier 2 are players who could emerge to become near every down players by year's end, but currently need more opportunity to truly "break out".
Jeremiah Smith (Ohio State), Ryan Williams (Alabama), Nick Marsh (Michigan State), Cam Coleman (Auburn), Reece Vander Zee (Iowa), and Mario Craver (Mississippi State) have all become contributors and starters for their squads.
Jeremiah Smith, Ryan Williams, and Cam Coleman were all five star recruits, so it's no surprise to see their names among legitimate breakout stars. Smith was dominating Buckeyes practice the moment he stepped on the field this spring. Cam Coleman lit up the Auburn spring game and has emerged as the team's WR1. And as for Ryan Williams, he should seriously still be a senior in high school. Williams didn't join Alabama's program until the summer, but has already turned into the Crimson Tide's best offensive weapon leading the team in targets, receiving yards, and scoring three times already.
Williams leads all true freshman in receiving yard market share ( accounting for 45% of Alabama's receiving yards), receiving yards per team pass attempt, and dominator rating. He is quite seriously on pace for one of the most significant true freshman breakout seasons of all time.
The other three Nick Marsh, Reece Vander Zee, and Mario Craver aren't exactly household names but have been rather impressive thus far. Marsh was an expected breakout candidate for some dating back to this spring given the need for playmakers outside at Michigan State. His huge 77-yard score blasted him near the top of this list.
Vander Zee leads all true freshman in snaps essentially an every down contributor already, but let's hope Iowa's offense doesn't waste him. And Mario Craver, despite Mississippi State's less-than-perfect passing attack, has clearly locked down a perimeter starting role with real potential too.
Tier 2 Wide Receiver Breakout Potential
Bryant Wesco, Ryan Wingo, and TJ Moore are the trio of Tier Two breakout potential seasons to watch that many saw coming.
Clemson has been in great need to new elite talents to emerge at outside wide receiver. Antonio Williams is a dynamic option that can win from anywhere on the field, but the Tigers need both Wesco and Moore to continue growing. They're not locked in starters yet, but they are first and fourth respectively in receiving yards for Clemson already.
Steve Sarkisian continues to find creative ways to get the ball in Ryan Wingo's hands. He not only has four receptions for 70 yards already, but also took a 55-yard carry for a long score last week against Michigan.
Malcolm Simmons saw significant work in the slot for Auburn in Week 1 against Alabama A&M and performed well. However, he may be relegated to a rotational role moving forward unless something changes.
Mazeo Bennett Jr. has become the primary slot wide receiver from South Carolina, and could see his opportunities continue to grow, but unless the style of offense changes his end-of-season numbers might not impress.
And last, but not least, Jacory Barney Jr. was supposed to be the longest of shots in this entire bunch. A three star wide receiver, Barney Jr. was an AAU Junior Olympic track star in middle school, but the hype surrounding his wide receiver prospects didn't carry into late high school. However, he apparently maintained that level of impressive speed as he's become Nebraska's immediate first choice to return kicks, adding over 100 return yards already. He's lining up all over the field on offense, seeing significant targets, and even some carries as well. If this continues Nebraska may have their next Wan'Dale Robinson.
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