Betting the Cowboys: Odds, trends and pick vs ATL Falcons

For the second straight week, the Dallas Cowboys are heavy favorites at home. That didn't work out last weekend, but that's on the rearview mirror. They'll host the 4-4 Atlanta Falcons in yet another noon game at AT&T Stadium. The Falcons are statistically weak, but they've fought their way to a .500 record that would […]

Mauricio Rodriguez — Dallas Cowboys News Writer
Add as preferred source on Google
Dallas Cowboys, Atlanta Falcons
Nov 7, 2021; Arlington, Texas, USA; Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott (4) in action during the game between the Dallas Cowboys and the Denver Broncos at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

For the second straight week, the Dallas Cowboys are heavy favorites at home. That didn't work out last weekend, but that's on the rearview mirror. They'll host the 4-4 Atlanta Falcons in yet another noon game at AT&T Stadium.

The Falcons are statistically weak, but they've fought their way to a .500 record that would put them in the Playoffs if the season ended today.

The odds

  • Spread: Dallas Cowboys -8 (-110)
  • Moneyline: Atlanta Falcons +320 / Dallas Cowboys -425
  • Total: 54.5

Public betting: Dallas Cowboys scared money away

The NFL is a "what have you done for me lately?" league. Although that saying is used mostly for players and coaches, it apparently applies to sports bettors as well. After the Dallas Cowboys started off 7-0 against the spread, a blowout loss to the Denver Broncos was enough to keep bettors away one week later.

The Cowboys – being America's Team – usually draw about 70% of bets when they're favorites. This time, only 53% of the bets are on them according to Action Network. Overreaction? Or fair reaction?

Trends

  • Falcons are 11-5 ATS on their last 16 road games
  • Cowboys are 7-1 ATS this season
  • Over is 4-1 in Falcons' last five games
  • Over is 8-2 in Cowboys' last 10 as a home favorite

The pick: Falcons to score on Cowboys' defense

I'm hesitant on the spread for this game. On one hand, I believe the Dallas Cowboys will bounce back and dominate the trenches against an Atlanta Falcons team with a poor offensive and defensive line. On the other hand, I can see how the Falcons keep it close with so many playmakers on offense.

I'm excited to see how Dan Quinn handles the Cowboys' defense on this one. Without Randy Gregory, matching up against Kyle Pitts and Cordarrelle Patterson is even more difficult. I expect Quinn's defense to show up and make some plays, but Atlanta should be able to score some points on this one.

They're averaging 22 points per game and rank 12th in the NFL on red zone offense through nine weeks of the season. Meanwhile, the Cowboys' defense has struggled inside their own 20, allowing touchdowns on 68% of the opponents' red zone trips. That's good for only 25th in the NFL.

I expect the Cowboys to win thanks to their high-powered offense, but my best bet is on the Falcons' team total, which seems a bit low.

The bet: Falcons team total 22.5, OVER

Season bets: 5-3

Odds via DraftKings

Featured image via Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

Related Articles