Betting the Cowboys: Odds, trends, and pick vs NE Patriots

Defensively speaking, this might be the toughest challenge the Dallas Cowboys have faced yet. Playing on the road versus a Bill Belichick-coached defense in Foxborough. Roster wise, it's likely no one would argue the Patriots are the better team. But if there's one coach who can come up with the perfect game plan to limit […]

Mauricio Rodriguez — Dallas Cowboys News Writer
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Dallas Cowboys, New England Patriots
Nov 24, 2019; Foxborough, MA, USA; Dallas Cowboys running back Ezekiel Elliott (21) breaks the tackle of New England Patriots outside linebacker Dont’a Hightower (54) during the second half at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports

Defensively speaking, this might be the toughest challenge the Dallas Cowboys have faced yet. Playing on the road versus a Bill Belichick-coached defense in Foxborough. Roster wise, it's likely no one would argue the Patriots are the better team.

But if there's one coach who can come up with the perfect game plan to limit the opposing offense, it's Belichick. Will the Dallas Cowboys avoid a trap or get to their fifth consecutive win?

The odds

  • Spread: Dallas Cowboys -3.5 (-105)
  • Moneyline: New England Patriots (+155) / Cowboys (-180)
  • Total: 50

Public betting: 8% edge on Patriots over Cowboys?

According to Action Network, 78% of the bets are on the Dallas Cowboys. However, only 70% of the money is backing America's Team. An 8% difference between the number of bets and the amount of money doesn't necessarily mean the sharps are heavy on New England, but it's a significant difference.

Before last week's game, the Cowboys' look-ahead line versus the Pats was at -1. It wouldn't be a surprise to see more money pour in on what could be perceived as an overvalued Dallas team in the betting markets.

Cowboys – Patriots Trends

  • Cowboys are 5-0 ATS overall
  • Over is 4-1 in Cowboys' last 5 games overall.
  • Patriots are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games as a home underdog.

The pick: No fear of Belichick

I realize how the words I just typed are bound to blow up in my face. But after looking at this game time and time again, I feel confident the Dallas Cowboys can handle the Patriots' defense. Beyond J.C. Jackson, the Pats don't have a lot to brag about on the secondary.

Although they kept it close against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, I fully expect Dak Prescott to have better completion percentage stats than Brady did in "The Return." Brady completed only 51.2% of his passes with a CPOE* of -10.7%.

*Completion percentage over expected.

While Brady's average depth of target on that game was at 10.7 yards, I also trust Kellen Moore's philosophy on taking what the defense gives them. If that means putting together long drives with shorter attempts or challenging the Patriots' go-to coverage, Moore will have the Cowboys' offense ready.

Once again, we refrain from "buying" half a point on this game and will bet the Cowboys at the live spread.

The bet: Dallas Cowboys -3.5

Season bets: 4-1

Odds via DraftKings

Featured image via Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports

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