Dallas Cowboys football is officially back!

Training camp is in the rearview mirror, preseason is long forgotten. This time, it's for real. Games that actually feature legit play calls, in-game strategy, and the highest of high-end talent on the field.

Cowboys fans will have to wait all day until Sunday Night but in the meantime, it's time to get those bets in (granted you live in a state in which it's legal, of course. Otherwise, you can fire up an Excel worksheet and put in some make-believe plays).

Last year, we had a positive record of 9-7 on this weekly series Betting the Cowboys. That's a 56.3% hit rate, over the goal of hitting 52.4% which would be our breakeven bets on -110 odds.

Let's kick this off!

The odds

• Spread: Dallas Cowboys +2.5 (-110)
• Moneyline: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -140 / Dallas Cowboys +120
• Total: 50.5

Public betting: Weird spot for Cowboys?

Even as the home underdog, the Cowboys are not getting the public's love this weekend. Although that goes against several rules of the betting world, it's far from surprising as Tom Brady is on the other side of the equation.

Per Action Network, 46% of the bets are on the Cowboys.

Trends

• Cowboys are 7-0 against the spread (ATS) as home underdogs
• Buccaneers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 vs. NFC opponents
• Cowboys are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 vs. NFC
• Under is 9-3 in Cowboys' last 12 games overall.

The pick: Cowboys and Bucs on a nasty showdown

Last year, Dak Prescott and Tom Brady acted as gunslingers on an epic, high-scoring 31-29 offensive shootout. This time around, I expect a very different kind of NFC clash. Both teams head into tonight's game with shaky offensive lines while squaring off against dangerous defensive fronts.

The Cowboys' defense specifically will look completely different than it did in last year's Week 1. Micah Parsons is rushing the passer nowadays (he didn't really do it versus Tom Brady) and the defensive tackle room is more experienced. 

On the other hand, Dallas will likely live off the quick game when passing the football as CeeDee Lamb is the only experienced wide receiver at hand. Leaning into 12 personnel, the Cowboys might feature a slower-paced offense.

Both teams finished the year with Top 5 defenses in EPA/play so expecting a balanced scoreboard is more reasonable than the notion of this being the same game as the 2021 NFL Kickoff.

We're going with the under!

The bet: UNDER 50.5

Season bets: 0-0

Last season bets: 9-7 (56.25%) 

Odds via DraftKings

Featured image via Jeremy Reper-USA TODAY Sports