Can the Dallas Cowboys beat the 5-8 San Francisco 49ers?
Just a few months ago, the storyline for the Dallas Cowboys' Week 15 matchup was clear. A high-stakes Sunday Night Football matchup against the defending NFC Champions. Dak Prescott's offense squaring off against Jimmy Garoppolo's. But life comes at you quickly in the NFL. The game has been pushed down to noon to make room […]
Just a few months ago, the storyline for the Dallas Cowboys' Week 15 matchup was clear. A high-stakes Sunday Night Football matchup against the defending NFC Champions. Dak Prescott's offense squaring off against Jimmy Garoppolo's. But life comes at you quickly in the NFL. The game has been pushed down to noon to make room for a Sunday Night Football game between the New York Giants and the Cleveland Browns. In at quarterback will be Andy Dalton and Nick Mullens. You know, the cherry on top of a bizarre 2020 season.
But what exactly should the Dallas Cowboys expect from the 2020 San Francisco 49ers? After all, they're in the bottom of the NFC West with a 5-8 record. Nick Mullens is in at quarterback but that's just barely scratching the surface of what the 49ers have had to endure this season.
Last updated in Week 12, the plot below is proof of how serious their problems have been healthwise. Through Week 12, only one NFL team had over 200 total games missed by players due to injury. And it's not particularly close. With so many injuries on both sides of the ball, who can blame San Francisco for being 5-8?
But of course, the 49ers have been getting healthier and healthier. And they're still a tough team to beat. Especially if your defense can't hold its own in the trenches. As we all know, Kyle Shanahan's blocking scheme is a thing of beauty.
Yet the 49ers' offense is coming off a terrible performance. Last Sunday, San Francisco wasted a great defensive effort in which they allowed only 3.1 yards per play against Washington. But the 49ers were able to put only 15 points on the board. Washington, on the other hand, scored 23, 17 of which came from San Francisco's three turnovers.
The 49ers are at a terrible place right now and the Dallas Cowboys might get the upset win in Week 15. But to achieve that, they'll need a strong game from their front seven to keep Shanahan's running game from taking over the game.
Yes, the NFL is a passing league, but when you have the worst defense against the run (Cowboys rank 32nd in yards per attempt allowed and 27th in rushing defense DVOA), teams can beat you by running the ball. Just ask the Baltimore Ravens, who ran their way to an easy 34-17 win over the Cowboys in Week 13.
It's also worth mentioning how productive the 49ers' defense has remained over DC Robert Saleh. According to Ben Baldwin's EPA/play Tiers, San Francisco has a defense above average, which is also backed up by the team's Top 10 status in defense DVOA.
The Dallas Cowboys were able to move the ball against the Bengals last week, racking up 309 total yards, but they continued to struggle in the red zone as they converted two out of four trips into touchdowns. The Cowboys rank 30th in the NFL in red zone scoring percentage with a low 50%. Considering the 49ers rank 8th in red zone defense this season, winning this game against a losing team might be a tougher task than it looks like on paper.
Featured Image Via Sergio Estrada-USA TODAY Sports
