The Dallas Cowboys are facing the Philadelphia Eagles for the first time this year and this time, it matters a lot. Both teams combine for a 9-1 record and a win in this spot would be massive for their NFC East hopes.

In such a big-time game, what's the bet to make? Let's dive in!

This season we're 5-0 betting Cowboys' games in this weekly series of Betting the Cowboys. 

Last year, we had a positive record of 9-7 on this weekly series. That's a 56.3% hit rate, over the goal of hitting 52.4% which would be our breakeven rate on -110 odds.

The odds

• Spread: Dallas Cowboys +6.5 (-110)
• Moneyline: Dallas Cowboys +215 / Philadelphia Eagles -255
• Total: 42

The public is betting on the Cowboys

For the first time this season, the Cowboys are getting huge backing from the public. Per Action Network, 59% of the bets are on Dallas and the points.

That's not an overwhelming number but it's relevant considering the betting spread has moved in the opposite direction. Despite bets coming in favoring America's Team, the Eagles have gone from 5-point favorites to 6.5 on game day.

Trends

• Cowboys are 10-1 against the spread (ATS) in their last 11 road games

• Eagles are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 home games.

• Under is 13-3-1 in Cowboys last 17 games overall.

The pick: Betting the biggest mismatch in this game

Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts deserves a lot of credit. Jalen Hurts has improved in a lot of areas this season and playing around a highly-talented offense certainly helps. Hurts has shown better footwork, an increased willingness to target the middle of the field, and more poise under pressure.

However, Hurts is still one of the worst quarterbacks in the league when he is blitzed. In pretty much every category, the Eagles' quarterback sees a steep drop-off when pressure is sent his way.

Jalen Hurts per @PFF

When not blitzed:
90.5 PFF offense grade – 2nd
9.9 YPA – 1st
73% completion – 3rd
7 big time throws – 5th
3 turnover worthy throws – 23rd

When blitzed:
57.3 PFF offense grade – 27th
5.8 YPA – 31st
58% completion – 25th
0 BTT – 26th
1 TWP – 18th

— Mauricio Rodríguez (@MauNFL) October 12, 2022

There's a lot of reasons for that but mostly I'd point to Hurts hesitation in such spots and the lack of answers schemed to Philly's offense. You don't see any blitz counter beyond screen passes on their offense. This is something the Cowboys can exploit.

Dan Quinn has proven to be an absolute master mind with how he deploys his hybrid defense. Just last weekend, the Cowboys confused Matthew Stafford multiple times with heavy coverage disguise and creative blitzing schemes.

As much as I believe Jalen Hurts has improved, I trust Quinn's defense to make Hurts freeze here and there even with a top-tier offensive line up front. Give me the points!

The bet: COWBOYS +6.5

Season bets: 5-0

Last season bets: 9-7 (56.25%) 

Odds via DraftKings

Featured image via Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports