The Dallas Cowboys will seek their third consecutive win on Sunday when they host the Washington Commanders at AT&T Stadium. The Cowboys are riding high after a primetime win versus another division rival as Cooper Rush aims to become the first quarterback to start his career 4-0 in Cowboys' franchise history.

Here on Betting the Cowboys, we aim for our own 4-0 start as well after selecting winning bets each of the first three weeks of the season. Let's keep that streak going!

Last year, we had a positive record of 9-7 on this weekly series. That's a 56.3% hit rate, over the goal of hitting 52.4% which would be our breakeven rate on -110 odds.

The odds

• Spread: Dallas Cowboys -3 (-110)
• Moneyline: Washington Commanders +135 / Dallas Cowboys -170
• Total: 41

Public betting looks quite different for the Cowboys

For the first time this season, the Cowboys are getting huge backing from the public. Per Action Network, 74% of the bets are on them in this game.

However, the percentage of the money on them is only 45% which is a significant difference of 19%. This means the sharps could be less high on the Cowboys as the general betting public.

Trends

• Cowboys are 12-3 against the spread (ATS) in their last 15 games vs. NFC opponents
• Under is 3-0-1 in the Cowboys' last 4 games.

• Commanders are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games vs. NFC East rivals.

The pick: Keeping it simple in Dallas

As we enter the weekend, it's easy to feel confident the Cowboys will win against a struggling Commanders team. However, it's also easy to make the case that this could be a trap game. Despite a two-win streak and accolades for Cooper Rush, the Cowboys' offense ranks 25th in EPA/play, per RBSDM. It's not like this is a well-oiled machine that unavoidably moves the chains.

With everyone being in love with America's Team again, isn't catching three points enough to back the Commanders? It feels like the perfect spot to back a contrarian bet as we did in Week 2 when we took Cowboys +7 despite 83% of the bets being on the Cincinnati Bengals.

While entertaining the idea is tempting, I'll keep it simple this week.

The Cowboys rank as the sixth overall team per Football Outsiders' DVOA metric. The Commanders rank 32nd. The Cowboys have allowed the least red zone trips (4) so far this season. The Commanders have allowed the most (15).

Also, Carson Wentz is a week removed from a nine-sack game as he's clearly the same mistake-prone quarterback he was in Indianapolis (and Philadelphia before that).

I've got to back what I believe to be the better roster against a team that's coming to town banged up (they'll line up their third center of the season) and that doesn't bode well versus a Micah Parsons-led defensive front.

The bet: COWBOYS -3

Season bets: 3-0

Last season bets: 9-7 (56.25%) 

Odds via DraftKings

Featured image via Danielle Parhizkaran/NorthJersey.com / USA TODAY NETWORK