How Cowboys can beat plain old luck in 2023 NFL season
The Dallas Cowboys defense has proved it's one of the best in the entire NFL in back-to-back seasons. Doing it for a third consecutive year will be quite the challenge. To do so, they'll have to stop many of the best offenses in the NFL. But it isn't just about neutralizing the Philadelphia Eagles' Jalen […]
The Dallas Cowboys defense has proved it's one of the best in the entire NFL in back-to-back seasons. Doing it for a third consecutive year will be quite the challenge. To do so, they'll have to stop many of the best offenses in the NFL.
But it isn't just about neutralizing the Philadelphia Eagles' Jalen Hurts or getting the best out of Aaron Rodgers and the New York Jets. It's also about another, very random opponent: Plain old luck.
To be more precise, I'm talking about fumble luck. We'll dive into the numbers, but first, let me explain why such a stat matters in the first place before you roll your eyes at my words and close this tab.
Fumbles and fumbles lost are wildly unpredictable in the NFL. And you know they are, too. After all, a football will bounce to one place or another depending on its angle, speed, and even the ground itself. Some bounces will favor the offense and some others will favor the defense.
I'll give you the perfect example and it so happens to involve the Cowboys. No NFL team forced more fumbles than Dallas with 24 to their name in the regular season, per RBSDM.com. The Houston Texans tied them for first with the same tally.
And yet the Cowboys recovered 16 of those (66.7%) while the Texans only capitalized on seven (29.2%). The Cowboys' fumble recovery rate was the best in the entire NFL, tied with the Indianapolis Colts.
Can Dan Quinn's defense expect the same amount of lucky bounces that lead to turnovers? It would be ideal but it won't be easy. However, we're talking about the same defense that led the league in takeaways for consecutive years for the first time since the 1972-1974 "Steel Curtain" Pittsburgh Steelers.
Last year, the Cowboys' fumble luck ranked fourth in the NFL. They and the Baltimore Ravens were the only Top 5 team in that category in 2021 to repeat in 2022.
How? The Cowboys' talented pass rush would suggest they can make it happen again as starting edge rushers Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence alone combined for six forced fumbles, per PFF.
As long as they're getting the pressure in and getting to the quarterback, don't be surprised if they keep generating fumbles while flying to the ball to recover it consistently.
On offense, it's only fair to credit the Cowboys for fumbling just nine times in the regular season, the second-lowest volume in the NFL trailing only the Cincinnati Bengals.
Featured image via Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports
