Cowboys trending to lose the NFC East in the cruelest way possible

The Dallas Cowboys are in a very odd spot in the NFL standings.  They are trending to be the leaders in the NFC East by the end of Week 14 but it'll be a fake leadership of the division. You see, they won't control their destiny even if they get into such a position as […]

Mauricio Rodriguez Dallas Cowboys News Writer
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Dallas Cowboys wide receiver CeeDee Lamb (88) and quarterback Dak Prescott (4) talk during the game against the Washington Commanders at AT&T Stadium.
Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

The Dallas Cowboys are in a very odd spot in the NFL standings. 

They are trending to be the leaders in the NFC East by the end of Week 14 but it'll be a fake leadership of the division. You see, they won't control their destiny even if they get into such a position as the Philadelphia Eagles could rip the division off of their hands even if the Cowboys win out.

Let's break it all down.

Although the games still need to be played, the Cowboys are favorites against their next two opponents: the Seattle Seahawks and the Philadelphia Eagles. Conversely, the Eagles are underdogs in their next two games.

For the sake of this exercise, let's assume the oddsmakers get these three results right and both the Cowboys and the Eagles are 10-3 after Week 14. That would Dallas the leader of the NFC East and Philly a wildcard team.

The catch: If both teams win out after that (a big if considering Dallas' schedule is much tougher than Philly's), the division would go to Philly. How? The third step to break a tie within the division would enter play.

A very, very costly Cowboys' loss in Arizona

Let's recap the scenario we're laying out:

  • The Eagles lose to the 49ers and Cowboys (expected results per the oddsmakers) and win out from Week 15 onward, finishing 14-3.
  • The Cowboys win out and finish 14-3. 

In this scenario, the Cowboys and the Eagles would split games head-to-head and both would be 5-1 within the NFC East. That would send us to the fourth tiebreaker within a division: Best won-lost-tied percentage in conference games.

The Eagles play the Arizona Cardinals in Week 17, a 2-10 squad that Dallas inexplicably lost to all the way back in Week 3. With a win against the Cardinals in the second to last week of the regular season, the Eagles could jump the Cowboys and reclaim the division since the latter fell to Arizona. 

Since this would happen after the Cowboys would spend Week 15 and Week 16 as the leaders of the NFC East, I can't think of a crueler way to lose the division. Especially since the main reason why could end up being the September loss to the Cardinals, a game they really shouldn't have lost.

There's a lot of football left to be played but Cowboys fans should think of this exercise as a reminder that the division will be tough to win even if Dallas wins out. In short, a tiebreaker is highly unlikely to go their way and they likely need Philly to lose three more games in the last six weeks of the season.