Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott woke up on Monday as the odds-on favorite to win MVP for the 2023 NFL season, tied with Brock Purdy from the San Francisco 49ers.

The development shouldn't be a surprise to anyone who's seen Prescott play. Since the Cowboys offense was significantly tweaked after coming out of the bye week back in October, Dak has been playing like no other quarterback in the league.

Clearly, he's seen as a legit candidate for the award and he has the numbers (and tape) to back it up. If the season ended today, it's clear several voters would heavily lean Prescott.

But winning MVP based on the current standings would be a huge development that could change what the award means these days for the better. Let's dive in.

Wild card quarterbacks just don't win MVP

You see, because the the NFL is a quarterback league, there's two things that have been true about its most precious individual-achievement: 

1. The award is heavily tied to a team's win-loss record, sometimes even to a fault.
2. It's become a quarterback-only award, and non-quarterbacks don't have a realistic shot at winning it, as it's unquestionably the most valuable position in the sport.

Let's dive into the first point very quickly as the second point seems to already be accepted as fact by most: 

Out of the 10 MVP winners since 2013, eight have held the No. 1 seed of their respective conference the year they won the iconic award. The only exceptions were two seeds (thus, division winners): Matt Ryan in 2016 and Aaron Rodgers in 2014. 

You'd have to go all the way back to 2012 to find a non-division champion win the award. And that was Adrian Peterson with the Minnesota Vikings! 

Now, you tell me: Is that what the MVP should be about? The best record in the league? But isn't wins and losses all about the team and not just the quarterback?

2023 MVP race could challenge MVP meaning

A lot of years, voters have had it easy. The best quarterbacks in the league have matched the best records in the league for the most part. Not to mention, the award has been won by household names year after year since 2017 that nobody would dare question.

No one will dispute Patrick Mahomes' two MVPs because he's been the league's best quarterback for a while now. Lamar Jackson in 2019 had a truly special season. Aaron Rodgers winning it twice made a whole lot of sense. Plus he already was a two-time MVP winner.

But in 2023, the scenario is significantly different. None of the above are in the race. Tom Brady is retired, Joe Burrow is injured and Josh Allen's Bills are in disarray.

It currently comes down to Dak Prescott, Brock Purdy, and Jalen Hurts, per the betting odds. Of those three, Purdy and Hurts are the likelier two to win their divisions, even if the Cowboys beat the Eagles in Week 14.

Per DVOA, Prescott and the Cowboys only have a 22.5% chance of winning the NFC East. Quite honestly, a lot of people would lean toward Purdy and Hurts just because of their current records.

Can that alone rule Dak Prescott out as an MVP? History would suggest so. But if the Cowboys quarterback keeps playing at the level he is, how can you not determine he's been having the better season? 

He's playing as the best quarterback in the entire NFL. He leads the league in big-time throws, has thrown the lowest percentage of turnover-worthy plays, and has some of the best EPA numbers in the league.

And on top of that, it quite literally doesn't matter what defenses throw his way. Whether it's zone, man, whether he's working from the pocket or out of it, Prescott is cooking. Just look at the following splits from analyst Mina Kimes: 

Was looking at some of his full season splits ahead of TNF and…well here ya go:

1st in QBR vs man
1st in QBR vs the blitz
2nd in QBR under pressure
2nd in QBR from the pocket
1st in QBR outside the pocket
1st in QBR on 3rd down https://t.co/3LHACCrYRP

— Mina Kimes (@minakimes) November 28, 2023

Aaron Rodgers recently went on a two-minute speech about how Prescott was playing the quarterback position like many of the young ones don't do it anymore, having total command of it from the line of scrimmage on top of throwing the ball really well.

Brock Purdy's season has been insane from an efficiency standpoint and he shouldn't be penalized for having a great cast around him and the league's best play-caller. Many league MVPs have had that in the past. This isn't a post that's trying to bring Purdy down.

But all I'm saying is if you ask voters who's been the best quarterback this year, I'm not sure there's a better answer than Dak Prescott right now. And if they give him the nod over Purdy while the Cowboys are a Wild Card team and the Niners are potentially the two or one seed in the NFC, it could be the best thing to happen to the award in a long time.

Make it about the quarterback. Don't make it about the final team standings. This is a huge year for the meaning of MVP. 

Cowboys QB Dak Prescott: ‘Nobody’s opinion defines me’

He’s locked in.