It's insane how much can change on a week-to-week basis when it comes to the race for NFL MVP.

In Week 15, a rough outing in Buffalo knocked out Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott from his odds-on favorite status for the major award. A week later, four interceptions wiped away an entire season of almost perfect stats for San Francisco 49ers' Brock Purdy. 

Now, oddsmakers consider Baltimore Ravens QB Lamar Jackson the favorite. After that remarkable performance in San Francisco, who can blame them? Jackson is an electrifying player that is playing as one of the best quarterbacks in the league this season and deserves to be in consideration. 

And yet, as we've learned recently, nothing is guaranteed in this league and two weeks of football can be enough to change the whole outlook. That's why today, I thought I'd lay out my thoughts on why it's worth it to take a flyer on Prescott's current MVP odds.

Below are the odds for the Top 6 candidates in the MVP race, per DraftKings:

1. Lamar Jackson -170
2. Christian McCaffrey +400
3. Tua Tagovailoa +1000
4. Brock Purdy +1200
5. Josh Allen +1300
6. Dak Prescott +2000

The above numbers mean a $100 bet would pay off $2,000 in winnings. When you're betting in sports, it's all about the value and I believe there is some in there. Let's run through a couple of truths about the MVP award. 

1. To win NFL MVP you gotta have the EPA to back it up

Per Next Gen Stats, "the leader in passing EPA has won the league MVP in six of the last seven NFL seasons."

If Lamar Jackson ends up winning MVP this season, he would be a very notable exception to the rule. Not only is he not the leader in passing EPA of the league, an advanced metric which measures offensive efficiency, but he's significantly far from it. Per ESPN and Sumersports, Jackson ranks 14th and 13th in such metric (formulas differ slightly). For contrast, he was fifth in 2019 when he did win MVP. 

Even if looking at total EPA to account for Jackson as a runner, he's outside the Top 10 for Sumersports (5th for ESPN). 

Meanwhile, per Sumersports, Prescott ranks higher in total EPA (3rd), pass EPA (4th), and even rush EPA (7th). He also has a league-leading 30 passing touchdowns to Jackson's 19, if you prefer traditional stats.

I'm not only saying Dak has a better statistical year than Jackson while also playing as one of the best quarterbacks in the league this year, but I'm also pointing to their respective odds. Lamar's -170 to Dak's +2000? The value is in the latter if you're into betting.

2. MVPs win, and they do it big

This is where Prescott's case takes a big hit. Whether you agree with the MVP voting philosophy or not, past winners tend to be No. 1 seeds in their respective conferences. 

Since 2013, eight winners have led their teams to the top seed and a bye week in the playoffs. The only two exceptions were second seeds.

If Prescott was to win the award, he'd likely would need to do it as a Wild Card team, something that hasn't happened since Adrian Peterson won it in 2012. And we're still arguing about that one. 

Meanwhile, Jackson's Ravens are probably going to end up with the top AFC seed, which will likely matter to voters. Jackson probably enjoys a nice tiebreaker with Prescott here, too, as Prescott's offense came to a complete halt in San Francisco when they played the 49ers. 

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Ultimately, I think voting will be pretty close when the time comes for it after the season. It's been such a different year for quarterbacks and it feels like voters have a legit chance at doing things differently in 2023. 

Will they make it about the winningest quarterback or the best quarterback? A five-pick ballot system will only make it even more intriguing. We'll see how it plays out. In the meantime, I'm buying low on Prescott's odds.  

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