Salary cap expert's insight shows likely sticking point in Dak Prescott's negotiations with Cowboys
When it comes to salary cap information, there's no one better than Jason Fitzgerald, founder of OverTheCap.com. So when he talks about the current contract sagas the Dallas Cowboys are dealing with, paying attention is a must.In a recent article digging into the growth of the quarterback market in the league, Fitzgerald made a couple […]
When it comes to salary cap information, there's no one better than Jason Fitzgerald, founder of OverTheCap.com. So when he talks about the current contract sagas the Dallas Cowboys are dealing with, paying attention is a must.
In a recent article digging into the growth of the quarterback market in the league, Fitzgerald made a couple of intriguing points about the value of Dak Prescott once his contract is finally done, be it with the Cowboys or another team in the NFL.
And I must say, the projected value Fitzgerald lands on is slightly lower than what I would've expected as someone who has brought up a number over $60 million per year for Dak based on some market trends.
Fitzgerald's method looks at two key factors: Each top-paid QB contracts' growth rate over the previous top-paid average value per year, and the number of days each player held the top spot.
Among Fitzgerald's findings, is that there are two tiers of quarterbacks per the market's growth rates, and each has had very different growth rates. There are superstars, defined by Fitzgerald as "players that have statistical success, playoff success, and are generally regarded as top players due typically to combinations of draft status and play," and includes "Aaron Rodgers, Patrick Mahomes, Andrew Luck, and to a lesser extent Josh Allen, Matt Ryan and Matthew Stafford."
While the last three names might be controversial, keep in mind Fitzgerald is looking at contract growth rates and all of the above had much higher percentages than average.
What the Cowboys and Prescott are fighting about
Per the article, "superstar" quarterbacks averaged a 10.6% growth rate and the other cluster of top-paid QBs (in which Prescott's 2021 deal is included) averaged a 1.3% growth rate.
The question the Cowboys and Prescott might be arguing about all this time is in which bucket does he belong? The one that pushes the market up by over 10% or the one that just raises the bar by one or two points?
Fitzgerald lays out why it's difficult to know and putting everything together, it would make sense for this to be the sticking point between the two sides:
Prescott is very interesting because he has all of the leverage in the world but the playoff success is non-existent and there may be some concerns on availability. The closest comparison I can see to him would be Flacco in 2016. His contract had become an albatross and that helped him land a new extension even though he had three years remaining on his contract. Flacco was also 31, the same age as Prescott when he did that deal. Prescott has put up more regular season numbers but Flacco did have the Super Bowl win from a few years prior to fall back on.
If Prescott were to get close to a Super Bowl this year I do think he could leverage himself into the Wilson/Stafford/Ryan range, but I think the risk is higher here. An injury would be a big negative as would a bad season. I think if all things stay equal the fair move here would be $55.5-$56.5M per year assuming he is the first to sign a contract and Dallas doesn’t get bogged down in Goff comparisons.
– Jason Fitzgerald, Over the Cap
Prescott is fresh off of his best statistical season of his career and was named a second-team All-Pro and finished as the runner up for MVP, which likely leads to his camp asking for superstar treatment. Meanwhile, the Cowboys front office is likely pointing towards the team's lack of playoff success under Prescott as well as his 2021 deal, which pushed the market up by only 1.1%.
The advantage for Dak is that he has a ticket to 2025 NFL free agency and we rarely get to see quarterbacks of his caliber hit the open market, where he'd be expected to push his own value up, perhaps to a crazy number a desperate team is willing to throw his way.
Something's gotta give.
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