Recently, I put together an article listing my five favorite over/under bets on NFL teams' projected win totals. Fortunately, I feel confident about my bets. Unfortunately, such an exercise led me to ask myself a very complicated question: How many games are the Dallas Cowboys winning in the 2023 NFL season? 

For those unfamiliar, these "team total" bets work as follows: The sportsbook gives you the projected wins of a team, for example, 8.5. And you, the bettor, decide if you're betting the team is winning over or under that number of games.

For Dallas, the number is quite complicated to figure out in 2023. Following back-to-back 12-win seasons, sports books project the Cowboys to win 10.5 games.

So, will the Cowboys win over or under 10.5 games? 

The answer is not that simple. Sure, Dallas has won 12 games back-to-back but they do play the AFC East in interconference play and get a much-improved NFC East. After all, the New York Giants made the playoffs and the Washington Commanders could be much improved with offensive coordinator Eric Bienemy leading second-year QB Sam Howell. 

No game will be easy in the NFC East (even though there's reason to believe the Cowboys should beat the Giants in Week 1). 

The Cowboys also get the AFC East in interconference play, meaning they'll play the Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, and New York Jets. All three of those happen to be considered legit Super Bowl contenders this year. According to Warren Sharp, Dallas has the 14th easiest schedule in the league, right around average.

If you ask the sportsbooks, it seems like they're leaning toward the Cowboys winning under 10.5 games, as the payout is slightly smaller than if you take the over.

I'm a huge believer in the Cowboys defense and its improved offense with the addition of WR Brandin Cooks, however. They should be able to hang with even the best of teams and exploit some favorable OL-DL matchups with their great pass rush.

Give me the Cowboys going 11-6 for the year. There should be enough wins in the NFC East, particularly against the Giants and Commanders, and let's call for a series split with the Eagles. The Cowboys also get the NFC West this year which means an almost guaranteed win on the road versus the Joshua Dobbs-quarterbacked Arizona Cardinals. The Carolina Panthers are also a road game, which should be seen as a positive.

I'll take a small flyer on the over but there's little value on the bet so I'll stick to my five best bets linked above.

Cowboys’ recent decisions prove they’re in win-now mode for 2023 NFL season

They’ve been proving it since March, too.

Featured image via Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports