Cowboys: Oddsmakers hit DaRon Bland with a bucket of cold water
Everyone aware of Dallas Cowboys cornerback DaRon Bland scoring five pick-sixes seems to agree on one thing: He belongs in the Defensive Player of the Year conversation. Just think about it, he's directly put 30 points on the board all by himself and that's without even counting extra points! How many sacks would Micah Parsons […]
Everyone aware of Dallas Cowboys cornerback DaRon Bland scoring five pick-sixes seems to agree on one thing: He belongs in the Defensive Player of the Year conversation.
Just think about it, he's directly put 30 points on the board all by himself and that's without even counting extra points! How many sacks would Micah Parsons need to equate that? Some have done the math on it, indicating that the answer is 25 sacks (which would be the NFL record).
What Bland is doing has never been done before and the last time a cornerback contributed such a high value per EPA/target was Stephon Gilmore in 2019. And he won the award that year? Well, the oddsmakers don't seem to care all that much.
DaRon Bland is still considered a longshot for DPOY
Although Bland's odds of winning the award have taken a huge jump to being the fourth-likeliest candidate, the oddsmakers aren't exactly buying the hype even at its peak. Just take a look at the odds, per DraftKings:
- Myles Garrett, +110
- Micah Parsons, +200
- T.J. Watt, +350
- DaRon Bland +1200
If you bet $100 on Watt, you'd make $350 in winnings. If you bet it on Bland, you'd make $1,200. In other words, even despite his most recent jump in odds, Bland is still not seriously viewed as a Top 3 contender for the award. His teammate, Parsons, is still heavily favored over him.
Now, the oddsmakers aren't always right, but let's try to make sense of their stance.
3 reasons why the Cowboys CB is unlikely to win DPOY
- He's not the best defensive player in Dallas. It's a tough ask to win the award when you're competing against Parsons within your own team. Voters will ask themselves who is more valuable to the unit and the answer is definitely the guy getting double-teamed every time in the trenches. He's the most valuable defender on Dan Quinn's unit and that hurts Bland's chances.
- Too many pass rushers in the race. In 2019, Gilmore's numbers were otherworldly, but he also benefitted in that there wasn't a clear-cut front runner at edge rusher. T.J. Watt and Chandler Jones split a lot of votes that year (10 and 14, respectively) but three other defensive linemen also received votes. This year, chances are it'll be all Garrett and/or Parsons getting first-place votes.
- Quarterback schedule gets tougher. This isn't me doubting Bland's skillset at all. But it's a fact that over the following weeks, the slate of quarterbacks this defense will face gets much more complicated and so will DaRon's chances of more interceptions (and interception touchdown returns). His pick-sixes have come against Sam Howell, Bryce Young, Daniel Jones, Mac Jones, and Matthew Stafford. Up next are Geno Smith, Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen, Tua Tagovailoa, and Jared Goff. Not that they don't risk the football but it's an overall better group.
