Cowboys' recent chess move is bigger than it seems
From a short-term point of view, football games are defined on the gridiron. From a broader perspective and over the long term of the sport, battles take place on a chess board. Offensive coaches find ways to attack defenses' weaknesses before defensive coaches find ways to counterpunch. It's the beauty of the sport. The Dallas […]
From a short-term point of view, football games are defined on the gridiron. From a broader perspective and over the long term of the sport, battles take place on a chess board. Offensive coaches find ways to attack defenses' weaknesses before defensive coaches find ways to counterpunch. It's the beauty of the sport.
The Dallas Cowboys appear to be thinking a few turns ahead compared to many other NFL teams when looking at one of their most recent chess moves: Drafting defensive tackle Mazi Smith.
Let's talk about some in-depth Cowboys football, from Xs and Os to fun stats, and why Dan Quinn's defense is about to look significantly different in 2023.
Cowboys defense is about to shift significantly
Cowboys defensive coordinator Dan Quinn is notoriously known for playing a role in the evolution of the Legion of Boom defense that terrorized NFL offenses with its single-high safety looks. But after several years from the Legion's peak, things have changed in the NFL.
A chess move here and another one there has translated into big smiles for quarterbacks when they walk up to the line of scrimmage and see a lone safety up high. Across the league, numbers reflect that offenses have significantly better numbers against such coverages than they do when there are two safeties up high.
You need two safeties up there to mitigate the threat of those deep passes. Even if you have them rotate post-snap, the mere presence of two-high safeties forces quarterbacks to think twice.
Three-time All-Pro safety Tyrann Mathieu explained why on a recent Twitter discussion with USA Today's Doug Farrar, citing "too much speed and athleticism at receiver position to sit in 1-high looks."
Although the Cowboys' defense has been one of the best in the NFL over the last couple of years, a quick look at their numbers reveals those one-high looks they like to sit on are becoming less and less successful.
Consider the following stats from Sports Info Solutions in which we're looking at how often the Cowboys lined up with just one safety up high and how they fared in each of the last two years.
| Season | Single-High Usage Rate (Rank) | Single-High Success Rate – NFL Ranking |
|---|---|---|
2021 | 54% (6th) | 3rd |
2022 | 56% (4th) | 22nd |
Going from third-best to 22nd is no bueno. As you can see, it's getting harder and harder to live in that one-high world nowadays. Offenses are just too good, quarterbacks are too quick, and receivers are too athletic. Cornerbacks need safety help and they need it now.
Ironically, the Cowboys were the very best team in the NFL in success rate when sitting in two-high looks. And yet, they were only the 30th team in terms of usage of such looks. It's not Dan Quinn's world, after all. But one of Quinn's biggest strengths is his ability to evolve. He's probably well aware a change in his philosophy is in order.
The Cowboys should want to play in more two-high looks than the previous two years. Of course, Xs and Os are one thing. You need the players to make these changes. That's where Mazi Smith enters the picture.
Mazi Smith and the Cowboys' light boxes
Playing with two safeties up high means taking one of them out of the box. That means fewer bodies to stop the run. In turn, that also means better players are needed upfront. Otherwise, offenses will make you bleed by pounding the rock over and over again.
In the Twitter discussion mentioned above, ESPN's Dan Orlovsky and PFF's Sam Monson talked about the run-stuffing DT making a big comeback in the league.
Adding somebody who can eat up space and eliminate gaps like 320-pounder nose tackle Mazi Smith will go a long way. While Monson accurately says "They're going to get really coveted again," the Cowboys are ahead of the curve after putting a premium on a guy like that by selecting him in the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft.
This will allow the Cowboys to do something they already do well more often. This is how they did in stacked box looks and light box looks last season:
| Defensive look | Usage Rate (Rank) | Success Rate Ranking |
|---|---|---|
Light Box | 43% (26th) | 1st |
Stacked Box | 31% (1st) | 17th |
In summation, expect the Cowboys defense to do more of what they already do well next season. I believe we'll see many more two-high looks in the backfield and many more light boxes in the defensive front.
For more on this topic and the Cowboys, check out my nightly live show A to Z Sports Dallas Primetime below!
Featured image via Jason Parkhurst-USA TODAY Sports
