Oh. That looks like a college football betting spread favoring the Dallas Cowboys! That's probably what happens when a 9-3 team is fresh off a 54-point performance and is slated to face a one-win team like the Houston Texans.

Sure, Dallas is the better team. But there's always a number in the betting world. And oddsmakers have determined it's a large one as the Cowboys are favored for over two touchdowns for the in-state classic. Let's dive in.

This season we're 10-2 (!!!) betting Cowboys' games in this weekly series of Betting the Cowboys. 

Last year, we had a positive record of 9-7 on this weekly series. That's a 56.3% hit rate, over the goal of hitting 52.4% which would be our breakeven rate on -110 odds.

The odds

• Spread: Dallas Cowboys +17.5 (-110)
• Moneyline: Houston Texans +1100 / Dallas Cowboys -2100
• Total: 44

The public isn't afraid of a large number

Per Action Network, 55% of the bets are on Dallas.

Look-ahead betting line projections had the Cowboys opening as 8-point favorites but the number has shot up as the team continues to pile on wins.

Trends

• The under is 4-0 in the Texans' last four games overall.
• The Texans are 1-3-1 ATS in their last five road games.
• Over is 4-1 in the Cowboys' last five games overall.
• The Cowboys are 5-1 against the spread (ATS) in their last six home games.

The pick: A stern reminder is in order

Sports bettors have probably heard this quote before. Bet the numbers, not the teams. The Cowboys are vastly superior in every phase of the game. The Texans are 32nd in the NFL in overall DVOA. The Cowboys are 2nd.

If Dallas wants to step on the gas, they should be able to put the Texans away in the third quarter. However, 17.5 points are a little bit too much and I don't think I can pass on them. The backdoor cover will easily be in play in the fourth quarter.

The Texans are still a professional team we're talking about. Their defense is among the league's best in third down and red zone conversion percentage. They play at the 24th-fastest pace in the league and if the Cowboys insist on running the football, they might drag this one long enough to cover the large number.

I'll turn to Mike McCarthy's own words to decide my bet this weekend.

"It's so damn hard to win a game in this league regardless of the betting spread," McCarthy told his players earlier in the week per the head coach's press conference. "You can never lose sight of that."

Even if the Cowboys get a huge lead early in the game, McCarthy's coaching staff prioritizes workload management. Against the Vikings, they benched key starters in the third quarter.

The bet: TEXANS +17.5

Season bets: 10-2

Last season bets: 9-7 (56.25%) 

Odds via Covers

Featured image via Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports