The perception of Tyron Smith has been pretty much the same for a good while now among Dallas Cowboys fans and media: This is somebody who remains one of the most intimidating, bloodcurdling, terrifying players on the field. 

It's only that over the last few years, he doesn't show up that often. Sure, werewolves are scary but not in a waning moon phase. The same goes for when the Cowboys left tackle is banged up.

That dynamic for Smith, who hasn't played a full season of football since 2015, has led to a common narrative surrounding him: If the Cowboys are to bring him back, it has to be on a play-time incentive deal.

That's what the Cowboys did last year, basically knocking his deal down several millions of dollars and giving him the chance to earn it back through playing time incentives. Why not do it again now that he's approaching free agency in March? Many (wrongly) seem to believe it's two options regarding Smith's future:

• Either he retires (which he's reportedly NOT doing), or
• He comes back with the Cowboys on a similar deal.

Don't shoot the messenger but I'm hear to say Cowboys fans and in some cases, media, are reading this situation wrong.

Cowboys are in for some Tyron Smith trouble nearing free agency

The problem heading into 2024 is that, Smith played 13 games in the regular season at an All-Pro caliber, earning second-team honors behind Trent Williams from the San Francisco 49ers.

In the process, Smith showed off in several ways:

• 4th in run block win rate per ESPN
• 3rd best pass blocking efficiency per PFF
• 4th highest rate for being "left on an island" (no OL help) per Arjun Menon
• 4th highest overall grade per PFF among tackles

That was all great during the season but it's an issue for a Cowboys team that is claiming they're going "all-in" in 2024 and that will have to fight for Smith in free agency. And believe me, Smith has the leverage this time around. 

Per our own A to Z Sports' Top 105 contract projections, Smith is projected to sign for a high amount of guaranteed money and you know contenders like the Kansas City Chiefs could be interested as he's arguably the best offensive lineman free agent in the market. Smith is second in expected APY in our projections and first per PFF's free agent rankings. 

In other words, expect Smith to be interested in testing the market if the Cowboys don't come in with a strong offer for him. Below is a summary of our contract projection for the future Hall of Famer: 

Unless Smith decides to retire, it would make sense to see him go to a contender that will keep his Year One cap hit as low as possible, spread out the signing bonus across five years, but bank an “option” year in 2025 that would be a reasonable cap hit if he manages to stay healthy in 2024 but still entices him to play another season.

2 Year, $25 million, $12.5 million APY, $15M GTD
Year One Cap Hit: $4.5M

If the Cowboys were to lose Tyron in March, offensive line concerns would skyrocket as the team would have question marks at center, left guard, and/or left tackle, depending on what they do with Tyler Smith.

Cowboys fans thinking is going to be an automatic transaction to keep No. 77 are misreading the temperature. Buckle up.

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