Betting the Cowboys: Odds, trends, and pick vs L.A. Rams
The Dallas Cowboys are officially on a hot streak. They've won three straight, including one against the Cincinnati Bengals, who represented the AFC in Super Bowl LVI. This weekend, they get the team who won it all in February. The L.A. Rams haven't been the same as they deal with multiple injuries and have failed […]
The Dallas Cowboys are officially on a hot streak. They've won three straight, including one against the Cincinnati Bengals, who represented the AFC in Super Bowl LVI.
This weekend, they get the team who won it all in February. The L.A. Rams haven't been the same as they deal with multiple injuries and have failed to replace wide receiver production beyond Cooper Kupp.
So what's the best best for this game? Let's dive in and keep that 4-0 betting streak going!
Last year, we had a positive record of 9-7 on this weekly series. That's a 56.3% hit rate, over the goal of hitting 52.4% which would be our breakeven rate on -110 odds.
The odds
- Spread: Dallas Cowboys +5.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Dallas Cowboys +195 / L.A. Rams -230
- Total: 42
The public is loving the Cowboys
Per Action Network, 64% of the bets are on America's Team.
In spite of that, the spread has moved in the Rams' favor. Sean McVay's squad opened at -4.5 and the spread has moved a full point toward the home team.
Usually, this inverse line movement is considered to be a result of sharp money being on the favorite. In other words, the sharps might love the Rams in this spot.
Trends
- The Cowboys are 5-0 against the spread (ATS) in their last five road games.
- The Rams are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.
- Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
The pick: Riding the winning horse
As a personal rule, I don't like betting trends. That's why I'm somewhat uncomfortable taking the Cowboys after they've managed to cover three straight games. However, it's tough to choose a side on the total and I can't ignore the points in this matchup.
The Cowboys could very well win this one outright. The Rams simply don't have an operational offensive line and that will be hard to overcome against a group led by Micah Parsons. This is a championship-caliber defense we're talking about.
Dallas will face third-string center Jeremiah Kolone on this one, too. That means the Rams will have an inexperienced center trying to survive the Cowboys' dangerous defensive front that keeps changing the picture every snap.
One time, you get Micah Parsons on the left side with DeMarcus Lawrence on the other side. In the next play, both are on the same side of the line. One play later, they're mugged up over the center. It's tough out there!
That also means the Rams' operation will be disrupted as quarterback Matthew Stafford will be forced to take on identification and declaration responsibilities on top of having to navigate the incessant pass rush.
Dan Quinn's defense is being widely successful without even taking the ball away that often and I see this unit keeping it close if not leading the Cowboys to an upset win!
The bet: COWBOYS +5.5
Season bets: 4-0
Last season bets: 9-7 (56.25%)
Odds via DraftKings
You can check out my full preview of the game on A to Z Sports Dallas Primetime below!
Featured image via Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
