Key stats show why the Cowboys' Cedrick Wilson-decision is harder than it seems
As reports continue to emerge a week before free agency officially starts, it's unclear what the Dallas Cowboys wide receiver room will look like. Making the conversation even more interesting is Cedrick Wilson. Although not as discussed as Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup, Wilson is the latest wide receiver on the team to make news. […]
As reports continue to emerge a week before free agency officially starts, it's unclear what the Dallas Cowboys wide receiver room will look like. Making the conversation even more interesting is Cedrick Wilson.
Although not as discussed as Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup, Wilson is the latest wide receiver on the team to make news.
According to Clarence Hill Jr. from Forth Worth Star-Telegram, the Cowboys believe they will be "priced out" of the Cedrick Wilson market.
This comes as a surprise specifically because of recent reports on Amari Cooper likely being out of Dallas in 2022. If the Cowboys are indeed to move on from their No. 1 wide receiver, many assumed the front office would try to re-sign Gallup and Wilson both.
Given Wilson has generally been a backup, his market value is expected to be significantly lower than Gallup's. In fact, Wilson's projected market value by Pro Football Focus sits at $6.25M per year on a two-year deal. It's a fair amount for a role player.
Would Cowboys miss Cedrick Wilson's impact?
It's difficult to know for sure. But if there's one thing we can't deny, is Wilson showed up for the Cowboys in 2021. Not only that, but he was actually one of the most efficient playmakers on the team last year.
Wilson led the team in EPA per target by a wide margin. Among players with a minimum of 60 targets, Wilson was No. 4 in the NFL.
What made Wilson special for the Cowboys is how many times Dak Prescott found himself connecting with him for big plays. Sports Info Solutions measures a stat called "Boom %" which tracks big plays while taking into account context (down, distance, etc.). Wilson was No. 3 in the NFL in said category.
But sample size becomes the issue when evaluating Cedrick Wilson. He only had 61 targets for the season, a mark that would warrant projection. He had six games with five or more targets in 2021.
Also, Wilson has been limited to playing in the slot with the Cowboys. Per PFF, he lined up in the slot on 85% of his offensive snaps.
If Dallas lets him walk in free agency, they could be missing out on a very cost-efficient option at wide receiver. Whatever happens with Cooper and Gallup will surely come into play but the Cowboys would be smart to avoid a sort of WR purgatory.
Assuming the reports are accurate, the front office could end up with a dangerous decision-making process by 1) releasing their premier wide receiver in Cooper, 2) letting a cost-effective, underrated role player walk in Wilson, and 3) re-signing Gallup to an overblown contract.
How the Dallas Cowboys have gone from an offseason of being named one of the league's very best receiving corps to this conversation is unfathomable.
Featured image via Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports