Mike McCarthy had a rough start to his tenure with the Dallas Cowboys. The COVID-19 pandemic restricted his ability to see his players until August during his first season in 2020, and a plethora of injuries, highlighted by quarterback Dak Prescott missing 11 games, led to a 6-10 record. 

The last two seasons have been a complete turnaround. Dallas has achieved back-to-back 12-win campaigns with an NFC East title sprinkled in there, and they've managed to go 5-1 in games Prescott was sidelined which speaks to McCarthy's leadership. 

All of that is great, but the Cowboys have only seen one playoff win as a result, and in Dallas, that's simply not good enough. Pro Football Focus made a list of coaches on the hot seat, and McCarthy was the second one named. 

"As much as Jerry Jones gives off the vibes of an impulsive and impatient owner/general manager, he is actually enduringly patient with head coaches that he throws under the bus on an annual basis. At some point, however, that patience runs out, and if Dallas has another typical underachieving season in 2023, it will be hard for McCarthy to hold onto his job. Kellen Moore has left to ply his trade with the Los Angeles Chargers, and Jones knows that Dallas has the talent to contend in a weaker NFC."-Sam Monson, PFF

Tom Brady, who the Cowboys knocked off last season for their only postseason win over the past two years, has retired, and Aaron Rodgers has gone to the AFC to play for the New York Jets. So, that significantly makes things easier for Dallas in the NFC. 

Easier doesn't mean it will be a cakewalk, though. The Minnesota Vikings have a very strong roster, the Seattle Seahawks had an amazing draft haul, the New Orleans Saints did a good job in the draft as well and had a busy offseason adding talent, and even the New York Giants showed under Brian Daboll in 2022 that they aren't to be slept on (they had a very solid draft as well).

There's another team that poses the biggest threat to the Cowboys in the NFC, more specifically, their division. 

The Philadelphia Eagles emerging as the class of the conference only adds to the embarrassment for Dallas if it can’t stop tripping up in the playoffs. McCarthy has assumed greater control of the offense this offseason due to Moore's departure, and with greater control comes greater responsibility for any success or failure. Jones is always more forgiving and patient with his coaches than you expect him to be, but another disappointing season would be tough for McCarthy to recover from.

So, it's pretty clear what McCarthy needs to do going forward.

McCarthy needs to get the Cowboys past the second round which means reaching the NFC Championship Game at minimum, something Dallas hasn't done since their last Super Bowl title in 1995.

Dallas has continued to find excellent talent in the draft under McCarthy, and trading for cornerback Stephon Gilmore and wide receiver Brandin Cooks this offseason were excellent moves. So, not only will the offense be even more explosive, but a Cowboys' defense that has led the NFL in turnovers the last two seasons got another shutdown corner opposite All-Pro Trevon Diggs.

I don't feel the Cowboys will move on from McCarthy if he doesn't at least reach the NFL's equivalent of the Final Four this season. However, he will have more Heat on his seat than Miami in 2024 if that's the case, and then it could be a make-or-break season for him. 

Feature image via Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports