Is Christian Watson a bona fide WR1?
This is an evaluation season for the Green Bay Packers. And, as such, management decided to avoid veteran, older players on the offensive side of the ball to let the young players have reps and learn. "I do think there's going to be times this year where, because there were so many knowns before, that […]
This is an evaluation season for the Green Bay Packers. And, as such, management decided to avoid veteran, older players on the offensive side of the ball to let the young players have reps and learn.
"I do think there's going to be times this year where, because there were so many knowns before, that we have an opportunity to grow and grow fast," general manager Brian Gutekunst said right before the regular season. "And that's exciting."
One of those potential opportunities has been given to wide receiver Christian Watson, a player for whom the Packers traded two late second-round picks last year to move up to the top of the second to select. In his rookie season, Watson didn't play much in the first half of the year because of multiple injuries, but was stellar in the second half, being one of the most exciting and efficient offensive weapons in the NFL.
This year, he missed three games once again because of a hamstring injury, and has been mediocre over his first two games back. It's obviously early: ups and downs are to be expected. But Watson has played worse than he did last season. His PFF grade has gone down from 77.1 to 62.0. However, his yards per route run increased (2.26 to 2.37), as well as the average depth of target (14.3 to 20.5).
Watson aligned as a slot receiver on 31.6% of his snaps last season. Over two games this season, his rate in the slot went down to 19.2%.
What can we take from all those numbers? Basically, Christian Watson has been used almost exclusively as a deep threat, and there's little nuance and route running ability in his game. At this point in his career, he is a supercharged role player, a better version of Marquez Valdes-Scantling. Which didn't seem like a fair comparison right after the draft makes more sense now, even though Watson is more talented and has much more upside.
"My number was called in some crucial situations," Watson said after the Packers loss to the Las Vegas Raiders on Monday night. "And I didn't make the plays."
On the deciding play of the game, Jordan Love was picked off after underthrowing Watson. That's not the wide receiver's fault, but he could have fought for the ball — or at least been aware enough to commit an offensive pass interference to keep the game alive.
Against the Detroit Lions, Watson had two catches for 25 yards and a touchdown. He was still on a pitch count. On Monday, he put up relatively good numbers, with three receptions for 91 yards, but most of the production came in one play, a 77-yarder allowed by a Raiders' broken coverage.

Looking at Christian Watson's route tree in Las Vegas, it's pretty clear how the Packers coaching staff sees him — at least in the moment. There's no nuance to his routes, just a fast player running on a straight line.
And when analyzing his draft profile written by NFL Network's analyst Lance Zierlein, none of those factors is new. The analyst mentioned that Watson "lacks deep bend for sudden sink and stop", "needs excess steps into the top of the break point", "catch focus is below average", and "needs to impose his size on coverage when the ball goes up". Every criticism seems on point.
Ideally, the Packers could look for a new, classic X receiver to be their WR1. Jayden Reed and Christian Watson would be awesome complementary pieces, because both are fast, explosive players. Romeo Doubs as a WR4 would be more than enough.
But when all of them are supposed to be more than what they are right now, the offensive issues are an inevitable consequence.
Christian Watson's efficiency and talent are undeniable, and there's still a chance he develops into an above average WR1. Skill set-wise, he isn't that at the moment, and the Packers need answers until the end of this season to move forward accordingly.
Cover 3: Quick takeaways after Packers’ loss to the Raiders
Green Bay fell to 2-3 in the season