At first, one could see the contract the Jacksonville Jaguars gave Trevor Lawrence and see that as a hurdle for the Green Bay Packers to extend Jordan Love. The deal is going to happen eventually, as both the Packers and Love have expressed the desire to get a deal done before training camp.

But for the most part, Lawrence's money and contract structure are on track with how the quarterback market has shaken out, and there is no reason for the Packers to be surprised.

In his Monday column, Sports Illustrated's NFL insider Alber Breer mentioned that the guarantees could be something hard to replicate considering Love's small sample size.

"My second thought on the Lawrence deal: If the Miami Dolphins are worried at all about Tua Tagovailoa's health, or the Green Bay Packers are worried about Jordan Love's short track record, those guys wanting Lawrence's guarantee structure could be a pretty significant problem."

Scenario

Even though Trevor Lawrence's guarantees are strong, they are pretty regular for NFL standards. The quarterback signed a five-year extension, so he will be under contract through 2030 — he is from the 2021 draft class, so he was already under contract for 2024 and 2025 as a fifth-year option.

So beyond these two years, the Jaguars only added two more guaranteed years. Lawrence got the entire 2024, 2025, and 2026 seasons fully guaranteed, plus $27 million of the $41.5 million of the 2027 money. After that, the Jaguars will still have basically three team options. That's not an absurd amount by any means.

Packers' perspective

Love's situation is slightly different than Lawrence's, because the Packers quarterback is already entering the final year of his deal — the short-term extension he signed last offseason. Therefore, a contract through 2030 would demand an unlikely six-year extension.

But that's not a big point. After all, we're basing our analysis on the new money anyway. Lawrence signed a $275 million contract in total value, with $200 million in guarantees (72.72%) and $142 million fully guaranteed at signing (51.6%).

While those numbers seem high, the Packers percentually paid even more to Aaron Rodgers in their last normal deal — excluding the 2022 extension, because it was a clear outlier full of outs for both sides.

In 2018, the Packers gave Rodgers a four-year, $134 million extension, with $98.7 million in guarantees (73.65%), and $79.2 million fully guaranteed at signing (59.1%).

Obviously, at that point Rodgers was as much more established quarterback than Jordan Love is now. But on the other hand, he was almost 35 years old and coming from a serious shoulder injury that had made him miss most of the 2017 season. Jordan Love is 25.

Likely outcome

The Packers will probably want to add some layers in case Jordan Love regresses to where he was at the start of the 2023 season if they can, and Love will fairly refuse that request. That might be the contention point in negotiations right now.

But at the end of the day, Jordan Love is the future, and if he regresses, it won't matter if he is making $50 million or $55 million per season.

It's fine for Green Bay to negotiate trying to protect the franchise as much as they can. Ultimately, though, the team has already shown a willingness to give a quarterback a strong deal, and one will most likely get done respecting the market reality.

Salary cap increase highlights what the Packers need to prioritize when negotiating with Jordan Love

Love has one year left on his current deal