Five potential scenarios for the Packers and David Bakhtiari
Left tackle David Bakhtiari is under contract with the Green Bay Packers for 2024, but that doesn't guarantee he will play another down for the team. His recent injury history and his big salary are important factors, and there's still no clarity about his future in Green Bay. "I mean, he's a hell of a […]
Left tackle David Bakhtiari is under contract with the Green Bay Packers for 2024, but that doesn't guarantee he will play another down for the team. His recent injury history and his big salary are important factors, and there's still no clarity about his future in Green Bay.
"I mean, he's a hell of a player, right? He is a hell of a player, and he had a big-time injury," Packers head coach said on Monday, during his end-of-season press conference. "So, I'm sure we'll evaluate that, get more information, talk to Dave, and those decisions will be made in the near future."
Recently, Bakhtiari himself mentioned on social media that his plan is to be with the Packers next season. But it's an overall complicated situation, with several layers and possibilities.
Mostly, the Packers and Bakhtiari have five potential paths moving forward, including scenarios where Green Bay can retain or not their current long-tenured player.
1) Keep him as it is
This is probably the least likely scenario at this point. Bakhtiari is entering the last year of the extension he signed right before his knee injury in 2020, and he's slated to make $21.4 million. The problem is that the Packers have restructured his deal multiple times to open up cap space since, and Bakhtiari hasn't agreed to add void years. That combination of factors created a salary cap bomb: Bakhtiari's cap hit in 2024 is projected to be $39.994 million.
It's basically impossible for the Packers to keep that. If the player doesn't agree to a restructure, they will probably just trade or release him.
2) Restructured deal
If the Packers want to keep Bakhtiari under a more reasonable cap number, they can still restructure his contract without adding more real years. That's possible under two different circumstances — and maybe both at the same time. The first one would be a simple paycut. The left tackle might understand that his market is not the same after so many missed games because of injury and agree to earn less money.
The other scenario is for the Packers to add void years to Bakhtiari's contract. The player would have to agree and sign an adjusted deal. That mechanism adds up to four fake years at the end of a contract to allow the team to spread the cap hit, transforming base salary and roster bonuses into a signing bonus.
There's a scenario where both things happen. Bakhtiari would agree to a real paycut to get less than $21.4 million, and the Packers would move the remaining salary around to make his cap hit as low as possible.
3) Extension
If the Packers feel comfortable with Bakhtiari's health status, they can give a short-term extension on top of the deal he's already under for 2024. That would allow the Packers to reduce the player's cap hit in 2024, and give the team some kind of protection in case Bakhtiari comes back playing at a high level.
Obviously, this is a difficult situation to project from the outside without much information about his knee recovery, but the Packers will know much more than we do when decision time comes. This might seem like a crazy idea, but Bakhtiari is 32 years old and there are several examples of offensive linemen who played well into their late 30s.
Even since the injury, Bakhtiari has played well when he's available. If he can be on the field, he is still a valuable piece.
4) Trade
If the Packers want to move on from David Bakhtiari, trading him is certainly the best outcome for multiple reasons. First of all, and the most obvious reason, is that the Packers would receive some kind of compensation — let's say a third- or fourth-round pick for him.
It's not an easy move because other teams will also be concerned with Bakhtiari's health situation, but a desperate team like the New York Jets might be motivated to make a move — especially if quarterback Aaron Rodgers forces his hand to be reunited with his long-time left tackle.
Moreover, a trade would exclude any possibility of a potential injury grievance from Bakhtiari — which would immediately block 40% of his cap hit from the Packers salary cap, and could eventually secure him his entire contract value.
The trade would free up $21.4 million in cap space for the Packers, leaving behind $19.065 million in dead money.
5) Release
If the Packers can't find a trade partner and aren't willing to keep Bakhtiari on the roster for whatever reason, a simple release might be on the table. That would also free up $21.4 million in cap space for the Packers, with $19.065 million in dead money, excluding any injury grievance scenario.
Because Bakhtiari is in the last year of his deal and there are no void years later, a post-June 1st designation is not applicable.
Packers LT David Bakhtiari reveals his plans for 2024
Left tackle played one game this season