Packers mailbag: Which defensive player will break out under coordinator Jeff Hafley
The OTAs are on, and the main topic brought by Green Bay Packers fans is the defense. They want to know how Jeff Hafley’s unit will be and which players can get a bigger role or perform better. So, let’s get into it. It has to be the Jeff Hafley effect. First, because rookies usually […]
The OTAs are on, and the main topic brought by Green Bay Packers fans is the defense. They want to know how Jeff Hafley’s unit will be and which players can get a bigger role or perform better. So, let’s get into it.
It has to be the Jeff Hafley effect. First, because rookies usually don't impact the game that much early on. Second, and most important, I don't think the Packers' issues over the last couple of years were lack of talent. There have been several defenses with less talent and better results. And it's not the system and the approach, but also Joe Barry's inability to adjust everything to what the players do well.
As I wrote earlier this week, we don't know yet exactly what Hafley's defense will look like, because he will have to adapt his system to the NFL level. But the fact that he seems willing to adjust is already a positive first step.
Going back to Hafley's system, we expect something similar to what the San Francisco 49ers run. And if that's really the case, I would project a significant leap for second-year edge defender Lukas Van Ness. You watch him play, and stylistically you can see some flashes of Nick Bosa — not in terms of level, but style. Putting the hand on the ground on four-man fronts will be helpful for what he does best, assuming he is healthy.
That question is aligned with a piece I wrote last week talking about blue-chip players on the Packers roster. The four names I would confidently put in the top 10 are cornerback Jaire Alexander, safety Xavier McKinney, guard Elgton Jenkins, and running back Josh Jacobs. We also have good cases for defensive tackle Kenny Clark, edge defender Rashan Gary, even though he slightly regressed in the second half of last season, and Zach Tom if you are counting just right tackles.
Jordan Love is also a very particular case. He is close to the top 10, and based on what he played over the second half of last season, he's already there. But it's fair to wait one more season to have a better idea of his real position among his peers — which might be even higher than that.
If Jordan Love can extrapolate the performance of the second half of last season to the entire year, that's more than enough to qualify as a great season for him.
Between weeks 10 and 17, Jordan Love completed 70.2% of his passes for 2,150 passing yards, 18 touchdowns, and one interception. Extrapolating those numbers to 17 games, that would mean 4,568 passing yards, 38 touchdowns, and two interceptions. That would be an 112.8 passer rating.
Even with more interceptions, like five or six, that would still be really good. However, it's not an easy threshold to accomplish — it also shows how well Love played over the last eight weeks of the season.
That's an interesting thought, because the 49ers' system is certainly better for Van Ness than it is for Preston Smith. However, Smith is a solid veteran presence and still a productive pass rusher. Over the second half of last season, Smith was better than Rashan Gary at times. So I would still expect Preston to be edge 2 this year, with Van Ness surpassing Kingsley Enagbare in number of snaps in 2024, and then going into 2025 as a starter.
It’s still too early to know exactly what Jeff Hafley will run with the Packers’ defense
Scheme might demand adjustments for the NFL level
