Packers playoff chances go up dramatically with win over Chiefs
It’s amazing what unexpected wins can do to an NFL team. Three weeks ago, the Green Bay Packers had a 9% chance of making the playoffs, with difficult games against the Los Angeles Chargers, Detroit Lions, and Kansas City Chiefs ahead. They were 3-6, and if they finished the sequence at 3-9, it wouldn’t be […]
It’s amazing what unexpected wins can do to an NFL team. Three weeks ago, the Green Bay Packers had a 9% chance of making the playoffs, with difficult games against the Los Angeles Chargers, Detroit Lions, and Kansas City Chiefs ahead. They were 3-6, and if they finished the sequence at 3-9, it wouldn’t be absurd.
However, the Packers managed to play the best football they have since 2021, with a lot of growth from their young players, and won all three games. Now, they sit at 6-6, and the playoff chances progressed fast: 25%, 50%, and now it’s at 70%. Outside of the Dallas Cowboys, the Packers are in the best position in the NFC wild card race.
| Teams | Record | Playoff chances |
|---|---|---|
Dallas Cowboys | 9-3 | 99% |
Green Bay Packers | 6-6 | 70% |
Los Angeles Rams | 6-6 | 50% |
Minnesota Vikings | 6-6 | 42% |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 5-7 | 27% |
Seattle Seahawks | 6-6 | 23% |
New Orleans Saints | 5-7 | 22% |
Chicago Bears | 4-8 | 2% |
In week 13, besides the Packers win, several results were positive. The Seattle Seahawks and the New Orleans Saints lost. And while the Los Angeles Rams beat the Cleveland Browns, the Packers have the head-to-head tie-breaker against them.
The Packers are now 6-6, and with five games left. They have a realistic shot at making the playoffs with nine wins, but they most likely do it with 10 — which would require them winning four out of the last five.
The most relevant aspect of the situation is that the schedule is pretty manageable. Next week, for example, the Packers face the New York Giants on Monday Night Football. If they win, their playoff chances go to 79%. If they lose, though, it's a big hit: 51%.
After visiting the Giants, the Packers play vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers, at Carolina Panthers, at Minnesota Vikings, and vs Chicago Bears.
The game against the Vikings is the most important in terms of playoff contention, because Minnesota is a divisional rival (it matters for tie-breaking purposes) and because it is in competition for a playoff spot too.
Matt LaFleur, though, preaches patience. He knows this is a young team, and ups and downs are to be expected.
“You start winning some games and people start gunning for you now,” said Packers head coach Matt LaFleur after the win on Sunday night over the Chiefs. “We’re a .500 football team. That’s where we’re at, that’s the reality of it. We’ve had two pretty good back-to-back wins. But you’re only as good as your last game. I do know this: You better show up each and every week in this league. Otherwise, you’re going to get knocked off because we see it every week.”
The Packers have relatively easy games against the Giants and Panthers left on the schedule, but it’s not time to take their feet off the gas. This is reality for several reasons, and one of them is playoff seeding.
Right now, Green Bay is seventh in the NFC. They would face the San Francisco 49ers in the wild card round — and Kyle Shanahan’s team is playing as well as anyone in the league. A good sequence of wins could put the Packers in the sixth seed, potentially facing the Detroit Lions — it’s a hard game anyway, and playoff games will always be, but a win over the Lions theoretically is much more realistic.
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