The NFL's regular season is over, which for most teams, means it's time to start figuring out plans for the offseason.



NFL free agency is a huge part of the process, and along with the NFL Draft, it has everyone preparing for what should be a very active couple of months.

We've officially come up with our own contract projections for the NFL's top free agents that include context behind each player's 2023 season, the likelihood of a franchise tag, the projection itself, and the first-year cap hit for a team that's “all-in” and is needing to reduce that first-year hit in order to maximize their cap dollars.

Below you'll find our projection for Raiders' pending free agent running back Josh Jacobs. 

Josh Jacobs 2024 Contract Projection

Jacobs tops our running backs list as his age and production over the past three years outpace the two other high-profile running backs hitting the market along with him. He has more games played, rushing yards, touchdowns and receiving yards than both Tony Pollard and Saquon Barkley while entering his age 26 year as opposed to the age-27 season the other two are approaching. Jacobs also sports the highest missed tackle forced rate of any free agent running back at 21.52%.

But Jacobs has two factors working against him trying to help reset a running back market that has been decidedly stagnant over the past several years. Firstly, his platform season is a disappointing one. With 805 yards and a 3.5 yards per carry average, 2023 was the worst year of Jacobs’ career. Secondly, as impressive as the last three-years has been, there is no real indicator that works in Jacobs’ favor as he negotiates against a deal Colts running back Jonathan Taylor just signed. That $14 million APY sets the ceiling for Jacobs and the rest of this free-agent class.

Jacobs still presents the best combination of prolonged success balanced with relative youth that will be attractive to teams looking for a bell-cow back. But with the disappointing season he is coming off of he is unlikely to improve much on the $11,791,000 franchise tag he played on in 2023, but should be in line to get some long-term security in the form of a multi-year deal.

• Franchise Tag Likelihood: Low
• Projected Contract: 3 years $36M, $12.0M APY, $20M fully GTD 
• Year One Cap Hit: $6 million

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Be sure to check back in and around the site for more projections, as we will add more in the coming days and weeks.