The Miami Dolphins have some huge offseason questions to answer, and that begins with one of the largest free agents on their roster.  

DT Christian Wilkins is set to become a free agent once the new league year begins in March, and he should command a large market of interested teams. 

How much do the Dolphins know that?  Quite a bit, it appears.  Dolphins general manager and head coach Mike McDaniel addressed the media on Monday to end the season, and Grier made a rather candid acknowledgment about Wilkins' value on the free agent market. 

"“Like we’ve always talked here in the past, our goal is to keep as many good players here as we can. They’ve both earned the right to be free agents. Christian and I actually had a really good conversation today. I was very happy for him. He bet on himself after a summer of negotiations where we made a couple offers and one we felt very good about, was fair, and he and his representation said as much, but we couldn’t close that gap at the end. So he bet on himself and it paid off for him. I’m very happy for him. So we’ll stay in communication and see where this ends up, but he earned the right to be a free agent. Again, I’m happy for him. We drafted him here, developed him here, and he’s the type of person we’re looking for. So we’ll see what happens.” – Dolphins GM Chris Grier

It's noteworthy to hear Grier say that Wilkins bet on himself and it paid off.  The Dolphins and Wilkins tried but were unable to reach a long-term extension before the deadline back in August.  Now, Wilkins has made himself even more expensive, and Grier's comments acknowledge that.  

Wilkins will be in high demand on the market

Wilkins should indeed be a hot commodity in March.  He finished the 2023 season with 9 sacks and was second on the team with 61 pressures including the playoffs, per Pro Football Focus.  

Wilkins will likely be third on most teams' boards for free agent defensive linemen.  That is, if he, Kansas City's Chris Jones, and Baltimore's Justin Madubuike all hit the free agent market.  If Jones and/or Madubuike work out a deal to stay in town or receive the franchise tag, then Wilkins' price tag could get even higher. 

What will it take to keep Wilkins in Miami?

A to Z Sports' cap experts Josh Queipo and Kyle DeDiminicantanio have put out their contract projection for Wilkins, and it's an estimated $23 million per year over a four-year period.  

It’s a good time to be an elite defensive lineman.

Although Aaron Donald has been a revelation on the defensive front and stands alone as a market outlier, the league has noticed the importance of a dominant inside presence and has paid accordingly. Just last offseason, four defensive anchors signed extensions with their teams, establishing a clear market of $22,500,000-$24,000,000 for a second-contract stud defensive tackle.

Since being drafted in the first round by Miami in 2019, Wilkins has started his entire career and only missed two games. He’s a high-motor player that is extremely disruptive in run defense, who needed to show a little more pass-rush upside in his contract year to really cash in. Wilkins responded by doubling his previous season-high 4.5 sacks, tallying [nine] sacks and 52 pressures in 2023.

Wilkins is slightly older than his counterparts that signed deals last offseason, as Quinnen Williams, Jeffery Simmons, Daron Payne, and Dexter Lawrence all signed extensions at age 26. At 28-years-old, Wilkins finds himself placed between these younger players and Javon Hargrave, who signed a four year, $81,000,000 deal with the 49ers at age 30.

Wilkins hasn’t had a season of dominance like Quinnen Williams displayed before signing his extension, so it’s unlikely he’ll leapfrog Williams’ contract when also considering the age gap. However, his contract shouldn’t be far behind. 

Franchise Tag Likelihood: Low
4 Years, $92,000,000, $23M APY, $50M GTD
Year One Cap Hit: $6.2 million

The figures seem pretty on point, but the problem is Miami has a lot of players to sign and are situated among the worst in cap space in the NFL at over $55 million over the cap per OverTheCap.com.  Tua Tagovailoa is due an extension, as is Jevon Holland.  Miami's entire interior offensive line is set to hit free agency, including center Connor Williams, who was outstanding before suffering an ACL injury.  Key defenders who greatly overperformed their contracts in DeShon Elliott and Andrew Van Ginkel need to be taken care of.  

As such, it won't be simple for Miami to just scratch a check for their star interior defender.  Queipo/DeDiminicantanio are also correct in that a franchise tag for Wilkins seems relatively unlikely given the fact the Dolphins would have to guarantee the full estimated $19.75 million that would come with the tag and be unable to defer to later years the cap hit.  Given their cap situation and the fact the cap will rise in coming years, it would make more sense to work out a long-term deal and backload the cap hit to take advantage of the window before them.  

Without question, Grier has his work cut out for him with Wilkins and a number of talented Dolphins that could be set to leave town soon. 

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