The Miami Dolphins have a tough task in front of them. While publicly the decision-makers show full support to quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, internally it’s fair for them to wonder how much he is responsible for the Dolphins’ offensive success, and how much he is just a product of a great environment, led by head coach Mike McDaniel and wide receivers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.

This week,Sports Illustrated’s Matt Verderame talked to coaches and executives around the league to know how Tua’s value should be. An executive, for example, had a reasonable stance.

“[The Dolphins] should pay him [between the] fifth- and 10th-ranked quarterbacks,” the front office executive said. “He has some talent and fits the system, but there’s no real upside and the medical is scary. He will only be as good as the players around him.”

But that’s simply not how the NFL market works. The quarterback market in particular has increased significantly over the last decade, and the new contract is usually the most expensive one.

After the Jacksonville Jaguars agreed to pay $55 million per season to Trevor Lawrence, it’s difficult to imagine a world in which Tua settles for less than that.

Sure enough, Lawrence was a better prospect coming out of college. And most tape watchers will agree that the Jaguars’ quarterback brings more individual value to his team. If Tua played in Jacksonville, his stats wouldn’t be nearly as good. On the other hand, Tua has played well, it’s a fact, and he operated McDaniel’s system at a high level.

And QB Elo Value is a good way to show how Tagovailoa has been individually valuable — and how he has a strong case to make more money than Lawrence does.

According to its official website, QB Elo Value is a measure and prediction of QB value from 538's Elo model. It uses traditional stats (yards, completions, TDs, etc) to model ESPN's QBR, then normalizes that value to be on the same scale as the Elo model. Think of QB Elo Value as QBR, but not on a 0-100 scale. Cumulative QB Elo Value is the sum of a QB's performance across their career. This number is a great way to quantify the total value a QB contributed across their career.

And even looking at PFF, who tries to isolate quarterback play, Tua has shown excellent individual value over the last two years.

After putting up grades 65.4 and 68.3 in his first two NFL seasons, he went up to 81.9 and 88.4 in 2022 and 2023. That coincides with Mike McDaniel and Tyreek Hill, so it’s impossible to fully evaluate how much it’s Tua and how much it’s everything else, but the Dolphins will still have their head coach after paying the quarterback — keeping Hill for the long term is less of a certainty. Meanwhile, Trevor Lawrence has had 59.6, 77.4, and 79.7 as his PFF grades.

Going back to Elo Value, Tua is above Lawrence, but below the other highest-paid quarterback in football, Joe Burrow.

But there’s a consideration about that. Burrow signed his deal last year, so $55 million meant 24.46% of the salary cap ($224.8 million). This year, $55 million is 21.53% of the $255.4 million cap. Adding inflation, 24.46% of the salary cap would be $62.47 million per season.

If Tua has been better than Lawrence and worse than Burrow, the Dolphins can find a middle ground paying him something between $55 million and $62 million. It might still be too much if Miami thinks Tua is a product of the environment. But that perception won’t change the reality of how the NFL quarterback market works.

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