Why Cole Smith doesn't deserve the ire of the Nashville Predators fanbase
Every year there is a player on the Nashville Predators that catches heat from the fan base for one reason or another. Ben Harpur, Luke Kunin, Matt Irwin, Cody McLeod, Daniel Carr, Zac Rinaldo… just a few of the names you'd likely hear shouted in frustration at games, or become the subject of furious Twitter […]
Every year there is a player on the Nashville Predators that catches heat from the fan base for one reason or another.
Ben Harpur, Luke Kunin, Matt Irwin, Cody McLeod, Daniel Carr, Zac Rinaldo… just a few of the names you'd likely hear shouted in frustration at games, or become the subject of furious Twitter debate.
It's an annual tradition that is perfectly understandable. When the team struggles, or is inconsistent, fans get angry. That anger is usually focused on select few players or coaches. Mostly it's directed towards the high-cost, high-reward forwards, the ones expected to make a difference every night. But there's always some left over for the low-cost, low-reward skaters, the ones that initially seem out of place on the roster. These are the players whose resume doesn't suggest they belong on an NHL team, but are being given ice time by the coach.
"Why is he getting ice time over these other guys?"
"That guy is killing us."
"He shouldn't even be in the NHL."
"Our coach is out of touch putting players like him in the lineup."
These are paraphrased examples of the frustration I've seen directed at these types of players over the years. And the newest focus of fanbase ire, in case you don't have a Twitter account or haven't been to a game recently, is Cole Smith.
(Do a Twitter search for Cole Smith and you'll see what I mean, or just take my word for it.)
However, in this case with Smith, this is misguided energy. It's placing blame where it doesn't belong, because Cole Smith has quietly been one of the team's bright spots during Nashville's first 20 games.
Cole Smith's underlying metrics among the best on the team
Consider the on-ice, shot-based metrics that Cole Smith has managed through 20 games.
With Smith on the ice at five-on-five, the Preds have 53.1% of the shot attempts, 57.8% of the expected goals, and 56.5% of the high danger chances, all while he is starting 61% of his shifts in the defensive zone.
For the uninitiated, those numbers tells us a few things about Cole Smith. One, he's starting most of his shifts in the defensive zone, which makes his job (i.e., stop shots in your end, generate shots on the other end) that much harder. Despite that, when Smith is on the ice, the team generates more shot attempts than they allow, has a higher expected goal share, and wins the high danger battle.
That's about as good as you can get for a player in the NHL. Take on challenging roles, compete hard, overcome the adversity, win more battles than you lose.

But be honest. If you looked at those numbers above without seeing the player's name, you probably wouldn't have assumed it was Cole Smith. You might think Tanner Jeannot or Ryan Johansen or newcomer Juuso Parssinen (those were the top guesses when I posed the same mental exercise on Twitter). In other words, you might assume it was a player doing all the right things, given his role and relative position on the team, and winning battles every shift.
But instead it's Cole Smith, a 27-year-old undrafted left winger from Minnesota, who many in the fanbase have dubbed the "new Austin Watson" or the "new Cody McLeod" or the "new Miikka Salomaki."
Smith's shot-based metrics mentioned above rank in the top three among forwards on the Preds this year. He has better shot-based numbers than the aforementioned Johansen and Jeannot, and even better than some top scorers on the team like Matt Duchene and Filip Forsberg. Only Cody Glass has better numbers than Cole Smith when it comes to shot attempts (CF%) and expected goals (xG%).
Most of that is because of Smith's work in the defensive zone. As mentioned earlier, he begins his shifts in the defensive zone more often than not, which means his first task is to win the puck, and then get it out.
Frequent linemate Michael McCarron thinks the "big, strong, and fast" Cole Smith is well suited for this role.
"He can read where the puck is going, he's got a long reach, just like me, so that helps," McCarron said on Monday. "I think his speed helps him tremendously in this league. It's a fast league. That's his best attribute, his speed and stick detail."
Stick detail is something McCarron mentioned multiple times when referring to Smith, and it's something that many fans might miss. Having an active stick in the defensive zone means chipping pucks along the boards, tipping passes, and guiding the puck to the less dangerous areas of the ice. Smith's skill with the stick is less about putting the puck in the net and more about disrupting the other team's ability to do so.
"He disrupts a lot of plays because he's up in the play," McCarron added. "He has good stick on puck details, he's able to disrupt a lot of breakouts. He's a good guy to have on your team. And, you know, he'll stand up for teammates, things like that as well. He's a little snake-bitten right now, but I'm sure once he gets that first [goal] out of the way, the doors will open up for him."
Cole Smith "does everything right, every time"
Smith's shot-based metrics are dulled heavily by his goal-based metrics. He has only five assists in 20 games and has yet to score a goal. He has 17 shots on goal, with 12 high danger chances, including at least two missed breakaway chances. To have that many chances and not have a single goal speaks to what lacks in his skill set, and it's what has so many Preds fans up in arms about his place in the lineup.
Smith likely does not have the shooting touch or offensive skill to be a good scorer in the NHL. He doesn't have Filip Forsberg's wrist shot, Ryan Johansen's hands, Mikael Granlund's vision, or Matt Duchene's speed. No one should be surprised that he's goalless through twenty games, and no one will be surprised when he likely finishes with single-digit goals by the end of the season.
But here's the cold, hard truth about a player like Cole Smith: some players are better in a role that serves others, or at least roles that serve the team overall, rather than serving themselves. Some players have skill sets that result in better chances for their teammates or require their teammates to do less work to stop the other team.
When I asked Preds head coach John Hynes about Cole Smith, the first thing he mentioned was Smith's size and speed. Then he mentioned Smith's ability as a penalty-killer and forechecker, things that anyone might notice just by seeing how the player is deployed.
But, after digging further, John Hynes revealed other details about Smith's game that stand out to him as a coach, and perhaps reveal why his advanced statistics are some of the highest on the team.
"The other thing that sometimes goes unnoticed when you look at a guy like Smith," Hynes added. "A lot of times you can you can use those analytical numbers, and his are good, the primary chance for and chance against… he's very good in that respect. But there's so many little things he brings to the team. He's a guy similar to [former Predators forward Calle] Jarnkrok. This guy does everything right, all the time. System, structure, work ethic, face-off detail… all the little things that sometimes you don't notice when you're just watching the game. Whether you look at our forecheck structure, how we want to reload, our face-off details, who bumps, who doesn't bump, who puck pressures. His attention to detail and the detail he plays with is something that you want and need. And I think that's why he's been effective on whatever line he's played on."
Those details are important to John Hynes and his philosophy about how hockey "should be played". Face-off responsibility, where to be structurally on the forecheck, how to reload when there's a change of possession, off-puck movement… these are things his staff look at closely. Goal results are secondary because the staff believes that goals will come if you are doing everything else right.
"When you go through the course of the game, it's the little things he does," Hynes said. "Obviously he doesn't have a goal yet, but when you look at his chance generation and quality chance generation, it's certainly there. Because of the way that he plays. He's got great details, he's got good speed, he plays in the hard areas."
Smith just trying to "stay true to himself"
At Monday's practice, as things were winding down, several forwards stayed behind to work on penalty shots. Some took a more serious approach, working on technique and timing. Some used it as a way to wind down after a hard practice. Some even tried fancy moves they'd likely never attempt in an actual NHL game.
Cole Smith, at least by my count, attempted more shots than anyone, working hard on getting his technique correct and skating hard through the drill. As he lined up again and again for more shots on Juuse Saros and Kevin Lankinen, the memories of a couple recent missed breakaway chances, and the fact that he's yet to score this year, surely must have been in the back of his mind.
"I don't think I've been thinking about it too much, no," Smith said after practice. "I should be able to get on the scoresheet with a goal here soon, but I think just staying true to myself, playing hard, playing the game that I have to expect for myself and what [the coaches] expect from me as well. Just putting your head down and trying to work and staying true to yourself and hopefully good things come out of it."
As for what the coaches expect out of him, Smith's interpretation seems to be a boiled down version of what John Hynes says he likes out of Smith's game.
"Just bring some energy," Smith said. "Try to get some momentum for the guys. Go out there and work hard. If we can generate energy and generate offensive zone time, feed that into our team, that means we're doing our job."
Smith added that his goal every shift is to "end possession in the offensive zone" all while "stepping up at some times to change the momentum." These objectives help him to stay true to his "stay true to yourself" mantra and give him a sense of accomplishment on the ice, even when he's unable to score goals.
"I think it starts with yourself. You've got to stay true to yourself. When you go out there and you win your one-on-one battles, you can create some energy for yourself. But you're doing it for the team. That's something I've always pride myself on being able to do… whatever I can to help the team succeed."
Players like Smith gain advantage anyway they can
Every team needs players that work hard for the puck, even when it seems like working hard for the puck won't end in a successful shot on goal. Every team needs players that can outwork the opponent, if for no other reason than to prove that the team has players that will outwork the opponent. It's a bit self-referential, but it's true. Opponents know when they are facing a team they can dominate physically (and when they can't).
In the NHL, the margins for victory are razor thin. The tiniest advantages can contribute to wins in major ways. A brief angle change in a shot, a small hiccup in skating that creates space, an extended body check that holds a player for a fraction of a second longer to create a rush the other way.
Roman Josi, Filip Forsberg, and Matt Duchene are excellent at finding those minuscule advantages and turning them into goals.
But players like Cole Smith can create small windows for success as well. While fighting along the boards, when retrieving pucks, or when creating forecheck pressure. Sometimes it's angling an opponent to his backhand. Sometimes it's holding the puck to the wall for a second longer, knowing that the defender you are battling with is at the end of a long shift. Sometimes it's laying a hit that adds the slightest hesitation to an opponent's subsequent shifts.
Is Cole Smith a part of the Nashville Predators' future? Hard to say. One of the main complaints I hear attached to Smith is that he's taking Philip Tomasino's spot on the roster. That's valid complaint, at least as far as Tomasino is concerned. It's not a stretch to say Tomasino could provide similar shot-based results to Smith, but with a lot more goal-based results as well.
But Cole Smith, at least right now, should not be the main focus of Preds' fans anger. He's not Miikka Salomaki, Zac Rinaldo, Austin Watson, or any of the other fan villains of the past. He's not a poor puck manager. He's not a liability defensively. He's not a locker room issue (if anything, the opposite seems to be true). He's limited offensively, yes, but he's also not someone who will be counted on for goals every night.
Should Philip Tomasino be in Nashville, contributing to the team's efforts? Yes. Should Cole Smith be the one replaced in the lineup when he gets here? I don't think so. Not with the way he's played in the first 20 games.
Every NHL team has role players. Cole Smith appears to be a good one for this Nashville Predators team, regardless of how surprising it may seem here at the end of November. But then again, that seems to be how his career has gone, to hear him explain it.
"I think it's just kind of been the progression of my career," Smith said. "Even going into just my first year of juniors, a little under-skilled, developing in my second year, then was able to thrive a little bit and go to North Dakota. Young, under-skilled freshmen. I worked hard by the time I graduated and was playing some top minutes there. Now I get into pro hockey and it's kind of the same way. Once I get a little bit comfortable, kind of just feeling myself and able to just be comfortable playing at this level has been huge."
Will this lead to a thriving career as a role player in the NHL for Cole Smith? Hard to say.
But for right now, he's in a role that the Nashville Predators, a team fighting hard to stay afloat in an increasingly tough league, really need.
— Featured image via Christopher Hanewinckel/USA TODAY Sports —