ESPN's Bill Barnwell predicted this week which five NFL teams he thinks are most likely to decline in 2022 and the Tennessee Titans were on his list.

Typically, stuff like this is worth totally ignoring.

Barnwell, however, isn't a hot take machine that just throws stuff out there like he's Colin Cowherd or Skip Bayless. Instead, Barnwell uses data to back up his takes.

When it comes to the Titans, there are three reasons why he thinks they're in for a decline in 2022.

• They were unsustainably good in games decided by seven points or fewer (Tennessee was 7-2 in one-score games last year, something that Barnwell says is historically unsustainable).
• The metrics show that running back Derrick Henry wasn't as effective last season, despite the gaudy numbers he put up before his injury (Barnwell says Henry's workload was responsible for the high yardage total).
• The Titans weren't as good defensively as they appeared in 2021.

The record in one-score games is pretty self-explanatory. And while Barnwell is correct that going 7-2 in one-score games again in 2022 is unlikely, I don't necessarily think we can look to history to predict what Tennessee will do in one-score games this season.

Each game is its own story, unimpacted by the score of the game that came before it or the one that will come after it. This is the weakest piece of evidence that Barnwell used to support his take.

The other two pieces of evidence, though, should probably concern fans a bit.

Henry averaged 1.1 fewer yards per carry in 2021 than he did in 2020. That's a significant drop-off. Considering Henry is 28, coming off a foot injury, and has had 955 touches in his last 39 games, it's understandable that there's some concern over whether or not he will return to his 2020 form (when he rushed for over 2,000 yards).

I don't think fans should worry about Henry looking like a shell of himself in 2022 — he's still going to be an elite player. But he might be as dominant as he was in 2020.

Defensively, Barnwell noted that Tennessee went from plus 11 in takeaways in 2020 to minus 3 in 2021. He also pointed out that the Titans were No. 20 in DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average), which suggests that Tennessee was….for lack of a better word, lucky.

From ESPN:

The Titans' turnover margin did regress dramatically, dropping from plus-11 to minus-3. They were simply able to overcome it by being better on a play-by-play basis on defense and continuing to pull out close games in the fourth quarter. They finished the year 20th in overall team DVOA, suggesting they were a slightly below-average team with spectacular timing.

Now, it's important to note that Barnwell doesn't think the Titans are going to crash and burn in 2022. He still thinks they're a good team. He just thinks a few of those one-score games aren't going to go the Titans' way in 2022 as they did in 2021 (and that's largely because of his views on Henry and the defense).

"We've seen that Tennessee is capable of beating any team on its day," wrote Barnwell. "I'm just not sure it will be the Titans' day quite as often in 2022."

It seems like every year the Titans are doubted and every year they prove the doubters wrong.

Barnwell brings up some valid points and since he's not a guy that just picks on teams (he also thinks the Green Bay Packers will decline in 2022), I think it's worth listening to his take.

Tennessee, however, just finds a way to win under Mike Vrabel. And I wouldn't be surprised if they defy the odds once again in 2022 and end up being a key player in the postseason.

In fact, that's pretty much what I expect to happen at this point.

Featured image via USA TODAY Sports