Data shows SEC East team wasn't as good in 2021 as its record indicated

The South Carolina Gamecocks have been receiving a lot of hype this offseason following their 7-6 record in 2021. Last month, ESPN omitted the Tennessee Vols, who also finished 7-6 and beat South Carolina in 2021, from their early 2022 top 25. But they included the Gamecocks. I immediately thought this was odd — mostly […]

Zach Ragan Tennessee Volunteers News Writer
Add as preferred source on Google
SEC East Vols

The South Carolina Gamecocks have been receiving a lot of hype this offseason following their 7-6 record in 2021.

Last month, ESPN omitted the Tennessee Vols, who also finished 7-6 and beat South Carolina in 2021, from their early 2022 top 25.

But they included the Gamecocks.

I immediately thought this was odd — mostly because the Vols dominated the Gamecocks last season, winning 45-20 in Knoxville.

Maybe the hype is because South Carolina's head coach, Shane Beamer, is the son of legendary former Virginia Tech head coach Frank Beamer. That's the only reason that makes sense.

Because it turns out the data doesn't support the idea that South Carolina is a good football team.

In fact, the data suggests that the Gamecocks' 7-6 season in 2021 was basically fool's gold.

The Athletic's Stewart Mandel did some heavy lifting this week and discovered that South Carolina's 7-6 record in 2021 was very misleading.

Mandel noted that the Gamecocks finished the 2021 season ranked No. 66 in SP+ rankings (Tennessee, on the other hand, finished No. 10).

SP+ is a tempo and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency.

According to ESPN's Bill Connelley, who created the rankings, the SP+ is "simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football."

"If you're lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you're strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise. It is a look at how teams should likely perform moving forward."

Mandel also pointed out that South Carolina ranked No. 96 in the nation in offense (5.3 YPP) and No. 73 in the nation in defense (5.6 YPP). He also noted that South Carolina lost four games by 25 points or more.

Even with quarterback Spencer Rattler transferring from Oklahoma to South Carolina this offseason, Mandel suggests that SC could have a worse record in 2022 than they did in 2021.

"It may be that 7-6 was a mirage, and the Gamecock’s record will be worse in 2022 even if Rattler marks an upgrade at that position," wrote Mandel.

That might be tough for Gamecocks fans to hear. But numbers don't lie. When sifting through opinions of teams, it's best to always trust the data. It might not always be right, but it's always unbiased.

Featured image via Maria Lysaker-USA TODAY Sports/Brianna Paciorka/News Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK