Tennessee football's matchup with Pittsburgh on Saturday is huge. Not only because Pitt is ranked No. 17 and a victory would give the Vols a nice statement win, but the game could very well be the launching pad to a special sophomore season for head coach Josh Heupel. A win over the Panthers would give the Big Orange tons of momentum going into an even bigger in-conference game against Florida. But in the same, a loss this week would mark incredibly disappointing start to what many are hoping will be a breakout season for UT.

And with that in mind, there are many things that Tennessee will need to do to vanquish Pittsburgh. Obviously, improving its defense over a year ago will be a sizable factor for Tennessee's success, but just like last year, most of the onus will be on the Vols' offense. The Big Orange must score early and often to get a road victory over Pitt. And during a press conference on Thursday morning, Josh Heupel mentioned one very large factor that will help lift UT to a win.

"There’s a big difference early in a football game between a five-yard run and two-yard run. A lot of little things go into that," Heupel said, " You’ve got to win one-on-ones on the outside during the course of this football game too. That dictates how the game unfolds, but certainly how you play in third-down situations. This is a really good team in third-and-long. We have to try and stay in manageable third downs against them.”

This might seem like a bit of a throwaway comment by Heupel but when you take a look at the numbers, third downs could end up making or breaking Tennessee against the Panthers. Against West Virginia, Pitt hemorrhaged 50% of 3rd down conversions to the Mountaineers. Perhaps Heupel was being charitable when he said Pittsburgh is "very good" on third downs but I'm certain he also knows that his own team wasn't excellent on third down during week one.

Heupel's offense converted just 38.5% (5 of 13) third downs it faced against Ball State. Granted, Tennessee only punted once when Hendon Hooker was under center, but the importance of 3rd down success remains the same, regardless.

Last season against Pittsburgh, the Big Orange managed to convert 46% of its 3rd down attempts and they will need to improve on that effort to ensure a win. For example, Heupel's team converted 70% of its third-down attempts in its blowout win over South Carolina in 2021.

Now, I'm not saying I expect Tennessee to win by 25 points on Saturday but there's no doubt that they will need to avoid getting stuck in 3rd and long predicaments and make Pitt work extremely hard to get them into 4th down situations. Revenge against the Panthers won't be easy but it's more than possible if the Vols will sharpen up the most important elements of their game.

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