The Tennessee Vols showed an incredible amount of progress in 2021 in Josh Heupel's first season leading the program.

Tennessee wasn't expected to finish the season with a winning record. In fact, one national outlet predicted that UT would win only four games last season.

Heupel ended up leading the Vols to a 7-6 record last season (7-5 in the regular season) thanks to an offensive attack that went from No. 109 in the nation in 2020 (under previous head coach Jeremy Pruitt) to No. 7 in the nation.

While Tennessee's success in 2021 under Heupel was impressive, it means nothing in 2022. The Vols are looking to take another step forward this upcoming season, which means trying to improve on their 7-6 record from a year ago.

The best-case scenario for Tennessee in 2021 is likely a 10-win season, which would be extremely impressive considering UT hasn't won 10 games in a season since 2007.

There are currently two "automatic losses" on the Vols' schedule (Alabama and Georgia) and three games that I consider complete toss-up games — at Pittsburgh, vs Florida, and at LSU.

If the Volunteers are going to win 10 games next season (including a bowl game win) then they need to win at least two of those toss-up games.

The games against Pittsburgh and Florida, specifically, are two games I think Tennessee absolutely has to win (LSU is a total wild card — the game is in Baton Rouge and the Tigers have talent, but who knows how they'll perform under new head coach Brian Kelly).

UT lost to Pittsburgh at home last season, but that was mostly because Joe Milton was the starting quarterback for that game. If Hendon Hooker starts, I think the Vols get the win.

Pittsburgh lost quarterback Kenny Pickett to the NFL draft, which will make the game a bit easier for the Vols (the Panthers replaced Pickett with former USC quarterback Kedon Slovis).

Something else that will make the game against Pitt more winnable for the Vols is the Panthers' loss of star wide receiver Jordan Addison.

Addison appears to be heading to USC after he was targeted by the Trojans, despite not being in the transfer portal.

The former four-star recruit had an incredible sophomore season in 2021, catching 100 passes for 1,593 yards and 17 touchdowns. To say that Addison is a problem for opposing defenses is an understatement.

Tennessee held Addison to six catches for 64 yards and a touchdown last season in Knoxville. But while the Vols had success against Addison in 2021, there's no guarantee it would've been the same story in 2022.

The Vols' matchup against Pittsburgh instantly becomes more winnable without one of the best playmakers in the nation on the field for the Panthers.

I thought Tennessee was the better team last year, they just started the wrong quarterback against Pittsburgh. I know this game is on the road, but I feel confident it will be a win for the Vols. Tennessee's offense found its groove last season after Hooker became the starter.

The UT team that Pittsburgh sees in 2022 will be better than the team they saw in 2021. And the Panthers aren't going to be quite as good as they were last year.

That's why this feels like a W for Tennessee — especially without Addison in the picture.

Featured image via Calvin Mattheis/News Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK