The Titans' odds to win the AFC South might shock you
Oddsmakers have made an annual tradition out of undervaluing the Tennessee Titans’ chances to win the AFC South. This year is no different as BetMGM currently lists the Indianapolis Colts (-105) as the division favorites, just ahead of the Titans (+135). How We Got Here The Titans have strung together six consecutive seasons with a […]
Oddsmakers have made an annual tradition out of undervaluing the Tennessee Titans’ chances to win the AFC South. This year is no different as BetMGM currently lists the Indianapolis Colts (-105) as the division favorites, just ahead of the Titans (+135).
How We Got Here
The Titans have strung together six consecutive seasons with a winning record. Head coach Mike Vrabel has captained the Titans’ ship to two straight division titles and four playoff appearances in the last five years.
The Colts, on the other hand have had a revolving door at the quarterback position ever since Andrew Luck retired ahead of the 2019 season. Since then, Indianapolis has started Jacoby Brissett, Brian Hoyer, Phillip Rivers, Carson Wentz, and now Matt Ryan.
Indy has just one playoff win since 2015 and have been without an AFC South title since the 2014 season.
Out With The Old, In With The New
Over the offseason, the Titans lost star power with A.J. Brown and Julio Jones departing. Brown’s talent will be difficult to replace, but Jones appeared to be over the hill for the majority of the season.
The pair combined to play in just 23 games, totaling 1,303 receiving yards and six touchdowns in 2021. Newcomers Robert Woods and Treylon Burks should have no trouble in topping those numbers if they stay healthy, which is an admittedly big if at the moment.
The Colts added WR Alec Pierce in the draft, but didn’t do much to improve their weak receiving corps, featuring Michael Pittman Jr. and an injury-prone Parris Campbell.
Blink twice if Jim Irsay is holding you hostage.
Defense Wins Divisions
The Titans (6th) and Colts (9th) each finished in the top 10 in scoring defense in 2021. However, the Titans’ defense was a notch above Indy’s last season, finishing second in run defense and tenth in sacks.
Both teams will field above average defensive units in 2022, but I’m not so sure that Las Vegas is buying the massive leap Tennessee took on that side of the ball a year ago, which gives Titans bettors added value.
It’s a Two-Horse Race
Derrick Henry and Jonathan Taylor are gearing up for one of the most anticipated rushing battles in recent history. Henry (28) is coming off a foot injury, leaving many people questioning how much gas he has left in the tank.
Meanwhile, Taylor (23) is coming off of the first rushing title of his career, though Titans fans are quick to put an asterisk as his crown came without a healthy Henry. Taylor finished with 1,811 yards and 18 touchdowns on the ground, which was enough for many talking heads to prematurely label him as the best back in football.
Taylor will almost assuredly take the torch once Henry’s time at the top comes to an end, but I’m not so sure that will come in 2022.
Taylor has the benefit of running behind the best offensive line in the NFL, while Henry’s bunch will have a couple of new faces this year. It’s important to remember that Henry was leading the league in rushing before he went down with a Jones Fracture.
Why Tennessee?
Oddsmakers are grossly miscalculating what the Titans’ defense is capable of next season. I believe that the departures of Brown and Jones are also being overvalued as Tennessee has done a fine job in adding talent at the wide receiver position, while simultaneously upgrading at tight end with Austin Hooper and rookie Chig Okonkwo.
The football world will have to wait and see what kind of impact Henry will have early in the season. His injury has a low likelihood of reoccurrence and should not deter him from another All-Pro season. Interestingly enough, BetMGM lists Henry and Taylor as co-favorites to lead the league in rushing yards, both sitting at 5/1.
This race is likely going to come down to the wire. The Titans at +135 odds seem like the superior option. With better weapons, a vastly improved defense, and a proven coaching staff I’ll go ahead and lock Tennessee in for its third straight AFC South title.
Featured image via Marc Lebryk – USA TODAY Sports
