4 things that still need to happen for Tennessee Vols to lock down a spot in the College Football Playoff

The Tennessee Vols rebounded from their 27-13 loss to Georgia last week with a dominating 66-24 win against Missouri on Saturday. Tennessee's win moves the Vols to 9-1 on the season. If the Vols win their final two games — at South Carolina and at Vanderbilt — they'll finish with an 11-1 record. That should […]

Zach Ragan Tennessee Volunteers News Writer
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The Tennessee Vols rebounded from their 27-13 loss to Georgia last week with a dominating 66-24 win against Missouri on Saturday.

Tennessee's win moves the Vols to 9-1 on the season. If the Vols win their final two games — at South Carolina and at Vanderbilt — they'll finish with an 11-1 record.

That should be good enough to get Tennessee into the College Football Playoff. But with the Vols currently at No. 5 in the playoff rankings, there's no guarantee that UT will be locked into a spot if they finish 11-1.

The good news for the Volunteers is that Michigan and Ohio State — two teams currently in the top four of the rankings — still have to play this season. That means one of them will have a loss. And a one-loss SEC team should get in over a one-loss B1G team.

There are still four other things that need to happen, however, to guarantee that Tennessee finishes in the top four of the College Football Playoff rankings.

Note: Tennessee can make the playoff without all of these things happening, but these four things happening will erase any doubt. 

Tennessee running back Jabari Small (2) gets past the Missouri defense during an NCAA college football game on Saturday, November 12, 2022 in Knoxville, Tenn. Ut Vs Missouri
Tennessee running back Jabari Small (2) gets past the Missouri defense during an NCAA college football game on Saturday, November 12, 2022 in Knoxville, Tenn.Ut Vs Missouri

If the following four things happen over the last few weeks of the season, the Vols will be in the playoff:

1. Tennessee needs to win out

This is the most obvious, but it has to be included because even though it's something that should happen, it doesn't mean it will happen.

Tennessee's final two games this season are on the road, but they'll be heavily favored in both of those games. First up is a South Carolina team that has lost two of its last three games, including a loss at home against Missouri in late October. The Vols then play an improving Vanderbilt team that still has bowl-game aspirations (Vandy, at 4-6, needs to beat Florida next week to keep those hopes alive).

UT, as noted, will be heavily favored in both of these games, but they still have to take care of business. Otherwise, nothing else on this list matters.

2. TCU needs to lose

This is probably the biggest thing that can guarantee the Vols a spot in the playoff. TCU almost certainly isn't a better team than Tennessee (playing head-to-head is the only way to know for sure). But they're undefeated and if they win the Big 12 without suffering a loss, it's hard to see them being left out of the playoff.

TCU still has to play Baylor and Iowa State. Then they'll likely play Kansas State in the Big 12 Championship game. If TCU loses one of those games, their playoff hopes are done.

Now, there's a scenario where TCU gets in and so does Tennessee. But a one-loss Pac-12 team could throw a wrench into that scenario.

3. USC needs to lose a game

This is the one wildcard that could really create havoc. UCLA and Oregon both lost on Saturday, which basically eliminates both of them from playoff contention — even if they win the Pac-12.

That's why Tennessee fans should now be cheering for UCLA or Oregon to win the Pac-12. The committee doesn't seem to love USC, but if they win the Pac-12 with just one loss, it could create an uncomfortable conversation.

USC plays UCLA and Notre Dame to end the season. Then there's the Pac-12 Championship Game. A loss seems likely for the Trojans…

4. Georgia needs to beat LSU in the SEC Championship game

This is probably the scenario that scares Vols fans the most. Could a two-loss LSU team that lost to Tennessee get in over the Vols if the Tigers win the SEC Championship?

ESPN's Rece Davis doesn't think so.

I agree with Davis. But will the committee? Would they actually leave the SEC Champion out of the playoff?

That's a tough call. And one that I don't think anyone has the answer to right now.

Tennessee fans are hoping that conversation never happens. For once, Vols fans will be huge Georgia fans in early December.

Featured image via Saul Young/News Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK