Why trading for Trey Lance makes perfect sense for the Tennessee Titans
Ian Rapoport confirmed on Wednesday afternoon that the San Francisco 49ers have been fielding calls and receiving inquiries from teams interested in trading for quarterback Trey Lance. Lance, the third overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, was given an opportunity as San Francisco’s starting quarterback a year ago before he missed majority of the […]
Ian Rapoport confirmed on Wednesday afternoon that the San Francisco 49ers have been fielding calls and receiving inquiries from teams interested in trading for quarterback Trey Lance.
Lance, the third overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, was given an opportunity as San Francisco’s starting quarterback a year ago before he missed majority of the 2022 season with a broken ankle.
Now with Brock Purdy poised to take over as the full-time starter and Sam Darnold under contract for $4.5 million, Lance could be dealt prior to or during next weekend’s NFL Draft
Tennessee Titans GM Ran Carthon was hired away from the 49ers front office earlier this offseason. Carthon spent six years in San Francisco as the Director of Pro/Player Personnel. He was front and center in Spring of 2021 when the Niners traded three first-round picks to move up and draft Lance.
By all accounts, the relationship between Lance and Carthon is a good one. How Carthon feels about Lance's time on the field for the Niners is unclear, but it would seem like they at least have a strong off-field relationship. When Carthon was first hired by the Titans, Lance took to Instagram to wish him good luck in his new role.
With this connection in mind, the Titans are frequently brought up anytime a trade for Lance is discussed. On paper, they may be the landing spot that makes the most sense.
Tennessee's future at quarterback is very much up in the air. At present, Ryan Tannehill is the Titans' QB1, but with Tannehill turning 35 this July, only one year left on his contract, and Malik Willis not looking like the answer, the Titans will need to find a long-term solution under center as soon as possible.
There is always the possibility of drafting a QB in the first round, whether that's with pick 11 or a trade up scenario, but neither one of those options will come cheap. Picking a quarterback at 11 means the Titans miss out on the chance to draft the high-end offensive tackle or wide receiver that they need. Trading up with Arizona for the third pick and grabbing your QB could produce an elite prospect like C.J. Stroud, but would cost multiple first round picks that could be important in the future.
It's very rare that an NFL team has the opportunity to acquire a young, former top three pick, high-upside QB with contract control for an affordable price. That's exactly what the Titans are looking at here.
Should Lance be traded, his rookie contract would keep him under team control for 2023 and 2024 at a combined cost of $9.07 million for the two years. Tennessee could also opt to exercise Lance's fifth-year option and keep him around for 2025.
That's at least three years of a 22-year-old quarterback that has shown flashes of high-end quarterback play in limited opportunity. Out of 62 NFL quarterbacks who started a game in 2021, Lance was 4th in air yards per pass attempt and 1st in air yards per completion. In his first career NFL start in October of 2021, Lance showed off his athleticism with 89 rushing yards.
Things have obviously been less than ideal to start Lance's career with San Francisco, but I don't think the "Lance got benched by the team that drafted him for a seventh-round draft pick" argument is fair. Kyle Shanahan and the Niners went into the 2022 season with every intention of having Lance as their starting quarterback. His injury provided Brock Purdy with an opportunity, and the team's success with Purdy under center has put Shanahan and John Lynch in a difficult spot moving forward.
Lance has been inconsistent when we've seen him in game action, but there's definitely some untapped potential there. If he's given an opportunity to start with a healthy ankle, we may finally see the breakout San Francisco was hoping to see last year.
The Titans desperately need some direction at the moment. Assembling a young core on the offensive side of the ball with Trey Lance, Treylon Burks, Chig Okonkwo, Kyle Philips, Nicholas Petit-Frere and some young receivers or offensive linemen from the upcoming draft would do just that.
That's a group with youth, upside, and contract control that could grow together in 2023. Next offseason with more cap space to work with, Ran Carthon could circle back and build the rest of the roster around the pieces that show promise. Jeffery Simmons, Amani Hooker, Harold Landry, and Roger McCreary will be in Tennessee's defensive core for years to come, but the Titans need some fire power on offense and direction at quarterback.
Maybe it doesn't work out…But even then, the Titans would only be out a few mid-round draft selections and likely be in a prime position to draft their future QB during the next draft cycle.
Bleacher Report recently predicted a Titans trade package for Lance to be a 2023 3rd-round pick (No. 72 overall) and a 2024 4th-rounder. That's a small price to pay given Lance's upside and the cap savings that would come with moving on from Tannehill.
