ESPN simulation says Tennessee would've won national championship in different season under Phillip Fulmer if playoff existed
If a playoff had been introduced in 1966, the Tennessee Vols wouldn't have won the national championship in 1998 according to ESPN's simulations. Instead, it would've been Ohio State hoisting the trophy at the end of the 1998 season via a win against Kansas State. ESPN's Bill Connelly simulated the results of a playoff starting […]
If a playoff had been introduced in 1966, the Tennessee Vols wouldn't have won the national championship in 1998 according to ESPN's simulations.
Instead, it would've been Ohio State hoisting the trophy at the end of the 1998 season via a win against Kansas State.
ESPN's Bill Connelly simulated the results of a playoff starting with the 1966 season and running through the 2023 season to determine who would've won the natty in each of those seasons with a playoff in place.
From ESPN: For each season starting with 1966, I'm going to simulate an eight-team playoff using historic SP+ rankings. Instead of just picking the favorite to win each game, I'm going to go full ESPN Analytics style and pick a random simulation from 10,000 to determine what would have happened in a given playoff.
Phillip Fulmer and the Vols wouldn't have won it all in 1998 according to Connelly, but they would've won a natty the previous season with Peyton Manning.
Connelly's simulations/formula says Tennessee would've defeated Ohio State in the 1997 national championship game.
From ESPN: This season produced the last split title of the pre-BCS era, as both Michigan and Nebraska reached the finish line unbeaten. Neither team was incredibly dominant, though, and with a 16-team playoff, at least half the field would have had a glimmer of a chance. Sounds like a great year for a playoff to me! And it produced what is one of my favorite simulations. You get rivalry upsets in the quarterfinals, and after a bitter, tight Heisman race that went against him, Peyton Manning gets the last laugh in a wild season.
(If you're wondering, Connelly's article still has Josh Heupel and the Oklahoma Sooners winning it all in 2000.)
The idea of Peyton with a national championship on his resumé just feels right. But the idea of the Vols coming up short in 1998 just feels wrong.
It's a fun look at what could've been. But at the same time, nothing can take away the pain of coming up short in 1997 or the jubilation of winning it all in 1998.
