ESPN's unique formula predicts if Tennessee would be in a 12-team playoff in 2023

The 12-team College Football Playoff doesn't start until 2024, but ESPN's Bill Connelly used a hybrid "BCS-like" formulate to take an objective look at what a 12-team playoff would look like at this point in the 2023 season.  Here's Connelly's explanation of his formula.  From ESPN: I crafted a BCS-like formula that combines poll averages […]

Zach Ragan Tennessee Volunteers News Writer
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The 12-team College Football Playoff doesn't start until 2024, but ESPN's Bill Connelly used a hybrid "BCS-like" formulate to take an objective look at what a 12-team playoff would look like at this point in the 2023 season. 

Here's Connelly's explanation of his formula. 

From ESPN: I crafted a BCS-like formula that combines poll averages with computer rankings — two power ratings (SP+ and FPI), two resume ratings (resume SP+ and strength of record) — in an effort to compare this more objective process to what the CFP committee comes up with each week. For the most part, the two processes end up agreeing, but the differences are always noteworthy.

Connelly's formula has the Tennessee Vols entering this weekend's slate of games as the No. 12 team in his rankings, meaning they'd be the last team included in the 12-team playoff. 

Here's his top 12: 

1. Georgia (9-0)
2. Michigan (9-0)
3. Ohio State (9-0)
4. Florida State (9-0)
5. Washington (9-0)
6. Oregon (8-1)
7. Texas (8-1)
8. Alabama (8-1)
9. Penn State (8-1)
10. Ole Miss (8-1)
11. Louisville (8-1) 
12. Tennessee (7-2)

Obviously, this doesn't mean anything for this year's playoff, which will only include four teams. But it shows how the Vols, moving forward, should be in the mix every year for the 12-team playoff. Tennessee would still likely need to win out to finish 10-2 to guarantee a spot in the 12-team playoff, but this shows that even with two early season losses, the Vols could still be playing for a national championship (in the 12-team playoff era) come December.