Final score predictions for Florida vs. Tennessee: Can the Vols finally beat the Gators in Gainesville?

Josh Heupel can still save the Vols season if he and QB Joey Aguilar find a way to defeat DJ Lagway and the Gators

Craig Smith, Travis May, Tyler Forness, Zach Ragan
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When the 2025 college football season began, both Florida Gators and Tennessee Vols fans likely thought this weekend’s rivalry game would have major postseason implications. Now, Florida has already fired their head coach and Tennessee is trying to avoid their fourth loss of the year. Still, this SEC matchup between hated rivals should be fierce.

The Tennessee Vols offense continues to put up a wild amount of points every week, but their defense can’t seem to stop anything or anyone from doing exactly what they want. The Gators have found found ways to stay within one score of most every opponent in much of every game, but turnovers and late game failures continue to plague them. Which team puts it all together and actually wins this week?

Considering what this game means to both the Vols and Gators fan bases (regardless of playoff implications, or lack thereof), media members from A to Z Sports who cover both teams decided to weigh in, predicting a winner. The picks are in. Enjoy!

Key Stats for Tennessee Vols vs. Florida Gators

  • The Tennessee Vols rank second among all FBS schools in total scoring offense and fifth in yards per play generated
  • The Florida Gators offense has been atrocious this year due to turnovers and passing inconsistency, but they rank 18th in offensive rushing success rate
  • Tennessee’s defense has given up a ton of points this season, but they actually rank 38th in yards per carry allowed
  • Florida’s is also extremely underrated at slowing down the run this year as they rank 46th in defensive yards per carry allowed and 47th in rush success rate against

Tennessee 30, Florida 23

“The last time that the Tennessee Vols beat the Florida Gators in Gainesville, YouTube didn’t exist and the number one song in the nation was “Shake Ya Tailfeather” by Nelly, P. Diddy (yes, that one), and Murphy Lee. It’s been a minute. However, the Tennessee Vols and Florida Gators programs have been moving in opposite directions over the last five years. Now is the time for the Vols to actually win one.”

“Yes, Josh Heupel’s team has defensive issues this season, but their offense is clicking on all cylinders looking like a top five unit in the country. If the Vols can just play mistake free football they should be able to hold off a Florida team that – while talented – has struggled to string together four quarters of quality football in a row this season. The Florida running game has been fairly consistent, but that’s the one area where the Vols have been able to stop opponents. Joey Aguilar and the Vols score enough points to stay out of reach of DJ Lagway and company here, breaking their absurd losing streak in Gainesville.” – Travis May, A to Z Sports CFB & NFL Draft Managing Editor

Florida 27, Tennessee 20

“This is a difficult game to predict for several reasons. For starters, Tennessee, whether they’re the better team or not in a given year, almost always finds a way to blow this game. There’s also the fact that we don’t know which version of the Vols or the Gators will show up this week. Will it be the Florida team that was blown out by Kentucky? Or will it be the Florida team that gave Ole Miss a scare last week? Similarly, will the Tennessee team that was a field goal away from beating Georgia show up? Or will it be the Tennessee team that made too many mistakes against Alabama and Oklahoma to have a legitimate chance to win those games? On second thought, I’m not sure any of those questions matter. Florida owns Tennessee in the Swamp. I have to go with the Gators until the Vols prove they can actually win in Gainesville. Florida 27 Tennessee 20.” – Zach Ragan, A to Z Sports Tennessee

Florida 31, Tennessee 26

“There is no program that is as mentally owned by another program like Tennessee is by Florida. It’s undeniable by the results of the last 30+ years. Good Tennessee teams have shrunk in the moment against inferior Florida ones too many times. And even when Tennessee wins with the better team, it’s closer than it should be. Case in point with last year’s UT playoff team winning 23-17 in overtime against a bad Florida team in Knoxville, and surviving a late heave towards the end zone after nearly melting down and blowing a huge fourth quarter lead in 2022. It just feels like there’s a cloud over this program that maybe a year off from the rivalry next season will help them start to shake.”

“However, it will be more of the same on Saturday. Jadan Baugh will have a big day on the ground, and DJ Lagway will look like the player Florida fans have dreamed about. The Vols will finally get rolling a bit in the second half down by double digits, but a late surge won’t be quite enough.” – Craig Smith, A to Z Sports Tennessee

Florida 27, Tennessee 17

“If there was ever a time for the Volunteers to get a win in Gainesville, it would be this year of chaos for the Gators. Unfortunately for them, they have just two wins in Gainesville since the turn of the century, and not a single one since Ron Zook was fired after the 2004 season. The Gators have been dominant in this rivalry winning 19 of the last 25 games, including a streak 11 in a row, and 16 of 17 from 2005 to 2021.”

“The one good thing for the Gators is they are likely getting back star defensive tackle Caleb Banks. He has only played in one game this year, and that was the 20-10 loss to LSU earlier this season. Quarterback DJ Lagway had one of the best games of the year against Ole Miss last week and will be extra motivated to finish the season on a high note with two of the biggest rivals in The Swamp.” – Tyler Forness, A to Z Sports Florida

Final Score Predictions for Tennessee vs. Florida

The A to Z Sports staff largely believes that the Vols’s curse and complete inability to defeat the Gators in Gainesville is going to hold up once again. On average, our staff expects this one to stay close, but Florida ultimately wins somewhere around a score of 27-23 over Tennessee. That’s a full touchdown off from what sports books believe are going to happen in the opposite direction (in favor of the Vols), but it’s tough to account for the mess that is the Tennessee Vols when they step foot in The Swamp.

We’ll be back with more Florida Gators and Tennessee Vols coverage here at A to Z Sports soon! Follow me (@FF_TravisM) and A to Z Sports (@AtoZSportsNFL) on X for all the latest football news!

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