Tennessee Vols quarterback Hendon Hooker is widely considered a dark horse candidate to win the Heisman Trophy in 2022 after his breakout 2021 season.

Hooker transferred to Tennessee after three lackluster seasons at Virginia Tech.

The Greensboro, NC native was essentially an afterthought last summer. Joe Milton was wowing the coaching staff with his incredible arm while fans were still wrapped up in Harrison Bailey's potential as a starter.

Milton ended up having accuracy issues and Bailey proved to be a backup option at best in the SEC, leaving Hooker as "the guy" just two weeks into the 2021 season (Bailey eventually transferred to UNLV).

Hooker made the most of his opportunity last season, passing for 2,945 yards in 11 starts. He also threw 31 touchdowns against just three interceptions while completing 68 percent of his passes.

The 2,945 passing yards are the 10th most in a single season by a Tennessee quarterback. Hooker's 31 passing touchdowns are the third most by a Vol quarterback in a single season.

It's easy to see why Hooker has found himself on a few Heisman watch lists this summer.

So what will it take for Hooker to have a legit shot at winning the Heisman in 2022?

Well, for starters, the Vols need to have a solid season. Tennessee probably needs to win at least 10 games for Hooker to have a chance.

Only two players this century — Tim Tebow with Florida in 2007 and Lamar Jackson with Louisville in 2016 — have won the Heisman while playing on a team that finished with fewer than 10 wins. It's an individual award, but the winners still usually come from teams that finish with 10 or more wins.

As far as Hooker's individual numbers? He'll need to step things up a bit if he wants to be invited to the award ceremony this December.

Every quarterback who has won the award since 2016 has passed for over 4,000 yards. Jackson passed for 3,660 yards in 2016, but he also rushed for 1,601 yards (and added 11 rushing touchdowns).

Hooker essentially needs to finish with close to 5,000 total yards based on what we've seen in recent years from winners.

So what do the projections look like?

Hooker should improve in his second season in Josh Heupel's offense. And as long as he's healthy, he'll make 13 starts instead of 11, which will help his numbers a bit.

Based on what he did last season, and the improvement we expect to see, here's how I see Hooker's 2022 season playing out:

3,780 passing yards

37 passing touchdowns

728 rushing yards

7 rushing touchdowns

I didn't want to get too crazy with the projections. This is based mostly on Hooker's per pass attempt and per rush attempt stats from last season. I expect some increased production (I based his passing yards projection, for example, on a one-yard per pass attempt increase in 2022), but I'm hesitant to project a massive jump in production.

I don't think these numbers will be good enough to get Hooker the Heisman in 2022. But I do think it could get invited to the ceremony — especially if the Vols pull off some big wins (like beating Florida and LSU).

Just getting invited to the ceremony would be huge for the Vols and their recruiting efforts under Heupel. The exposure that the entire program would receive would be invaluable.

I like Hooker's chances at a big season. And I think he'll get some national recognition for it. But I don't think it will be enough for Hooker to become Tennessee's first Heisman Trophy winner in program history.

Featured image via Steve Roberts-USA TODAY Sports