Why Tennessee is one of only seven teams that history says can win the NCAA national championship
Tennessee fans are likely saying, "here we go again." At least a significant number are likely feeling that way after the Vols' uninspired performance in a 73-56 loss to Mississippi State in the SEC tournament quarterfinals on Friday. However, although Tennessee's performances in March give many fans pause in believing that this year will be […]
Tennessee fans are likely saying, "here we go again." At least a significant number are likely feeling that way after the Vols' uninspired performance in a 73-56 loss to Mississippi State in the SEC tournament quarterfinals on Friday.
However, although Tennessee's performances in March give many fans pause in believing that this year will be different, recent history says that might be the case.
Over the last two decades, teams that have finished inside the top 40 in adjusted offense and top 20 in adjusted defense in KenPom's end of regular season rankings have gone on to win the national championship. In simple terms, adjusted offense and defense rankings are how many points a team scores (or allows) per 100 possessions with opponents' strength factored in.
The only team outside of the top 20 in both was UConn in 2014, who was ranked 39th in KemPom offense and 10th in defense and concluded an improbably run to a title as a 7 seed.
This year's Tennessee team checks in at 28th in adjusted offense and 3rd in adjusted defense. The other teams that fall within the 40/20 spectrum are UConn, Houston, Auburn, Arizona, North Carolina, and Marquette.
As such, while Tennessee has a bad history on its side as far as its own showings in college basketball's marquee event, it has a historical factor in its favor this year as well.
And for those looking for an additional silver lining, Tennessee was far from the only notable team to falter over the weekend. Kentucky lost to Texas A&M on Friday. Purdue fell to Wisconsin in the Big Ten semifinal. Houston was destroyed by Iowa State 69-41 in the Big 12 conference championship game. North Carolina fell to 10 seed NC State in the ACC championship game.
We'll find out what history has to say about the Vols once the Final Four wraps up in Phoenix on April 8.
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