Where Pro Football Focus predicts Hendon Hooker will be drafted in the 2023 NFL Draft
Tennessee Vols quarterback Hendon Hooker had one of the best seasons of any college football player in 2022. Hooker, who should've been a Heisman finalist, passed for 3,135 yards, 27 touchdowns, and just two interceptions in 11 games. He also rushed for 430 yards and five touchdowns Despite those impressive numbers and the fact that […]
Tennessee Vols quarterback Hendon Hooker had one of the best seasons of any college football player in 2022.
Hooker, who should've been a Heisman finalist, passed for 3,135 yards, 27 touchdowns, and just two interceptions in 11 games. He also rushed for 430 yards and five touchdowns
Despite those impressive numbers and the fact that he led the nation's top offense, Hooker isn't expected to be a high draft pick.
And that's for three seasons:
- Hooker's age (he turns 25 later this month)
- His torn ACL that he suffered in Tennessee's loss to South Carolina in November
- The offense he played in at UT
Because of those factors, Pro Football Focus doesn't see Hooker being drafted until day three of the 2023 NFL Draft (rounds 4-7).
Josh Heupel’s offense isn’t going to do Hooker any favors in the eyes of evaluators. The no-huddle, go-ball heavy attack is no stranger to putting up big passing numbers. Dillon Gabriel had monster years as a true freshman and sophomore at UCF in the same offense. It’s often asking the quarterback to do little more than count numbers to decide which route to throw. Because of the ultra-wide spread attack's propensity to “break” coverages, Hooker led the Power-Five in completions targeted 20-plus yards downfield that earned only a .5 grade or below (19). That means those throws weren’t anything special, but rather, his receivers were wide-open.
As a runner, he’s obviously very gifted, but when he breaks the pocket, he’s looking almost exclusively to run, not pass. On 151 dropbacks the past two seasons where he was moved off his spot, Hooker completed only seven passes!

Tennessee fans probably won't love this projection, but PFF is likely right. The factors they mentioned are things that NFL teams look at. And right or wrong, it'll impact how NFL franchises view Hooker.
The perception about Heupel's offense and NFL quarterbacks can only be changed one way — a quarterback from Heupel's system will have to excel in the NFL for that narrative to change.
It's basically how air raid quarterbacks were viewed before Patrick Mahomes came onto the scene. Guys like Graham Harrell who put up insane numbers in the air raid system weren't viewed as a legitimate NFL prospects. It took Mahomes making the jump from an air raid system to an NFL MVP for that perception to change.
If Hooker returns from his ACL injury and can become an NFL starter somewhere, it will start changing the perception of Heupel's system when it comes to NFL draft prospects.
Unfortunately, that's the only way this narrative can and will change.
Featured image via Saul Young/News Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK
