2025 NFL Draft Echo Chamber: Cautionary tale of the Jaxson Dart hype, the truth, the overstated, and the range of outcomes
We are just a little over two months until the 2025 NFL Draft officially kicks off, which means the general public is going to get to know this class a whole lot better over the next several weeks. That process already started with the Reese’s Senior Bowl and the East-West Shrine Bowl, two all-star game […]
We are just a little over two months until the 2025 NFL Draft officially kicks off, which means the general public is going to get to know this class a whole lot better over the next several weeks. That process already started with the Reese’s Senior Bowl and the East-West Shrine Bowl, two all-star game events designed to highlight over 200 of the best players in the class. It will continue at the NFL Scouting Combine in a couple of weeks.
In this sector of football coverage, it is very niche to most. While the diehard draftniks are obsessing over arm length, and the difference between valuation and evaluation all year, most only start paying attention once their favorite NFL team’s season is over. That crash course of information in such a short amount of time can be a bit overwhelming.
For that reason, a lot of the general public learns who to listen to. Whether it’s Mel Kiper Jr., Todd McShay, Dane Brugler, or any of your other favorite draft analysts, they each bring tremendous information and value to the table, although to different levels. Each also has great connections in the NFL, which leads to some tremendous intel to how these players are viewed.
The problem with fully adopting an opinion without doing your own homework is that this field is very subjective. Even the best evaluators can get it wrong at times and the NFL is as guilty as anyone. Instead of their opinion becoming a part of the analysis, these mainstream thoughts develop and become this massive echo chamber, and those who think differently at times, are viewed as incorrect even though the correctness of the takes won’t be verified for several years.
THE JAXSON DART ECHO CHAMBER
In this latest echo chamber, it centers around Ole Miss quarterback Jaxson Dart. A very successful signal caller for the Rebels over the last three years, Dart just put together his finest season in 2024. He finished the year with 4,279 passing yards and 29 touchdowns while completing over 69 percent of his passes. Dart also rushed for 495 yards and three more scores on the ground.
The production is good, but there are also some serious physical limitations that a lot of people seem to be ignoring. Most people have even started to take the Dart buzz and elevate it to a whole other level. Most prominent analysts have said that Dart is a strong candidate to land on Day Two (Rounds 2-3), and has the opportunity to rise to the beginning of it in a very poor quarterback class.
Despite that analysis, Dart is now frequently being mocked in the first round by many. We even have a lot of people claiming that he is a top two quarterback in this class, and the top guy on various lists. That’s where the hype is getting way out of hand.
MY EVALUATION
Before the season began, I felt like I was in the minority with Dart. I viewed him as the potential riser in the class, and a guy who could be a nice developmental option on the second day while his name was barely being mentioned by most. In a lot of ways, I’m right on par with the mainstream draft analysts out there. The problem is that the hype hasn’t stopped, and I am now suddenly the minority once again.
There are several interesting parts of Dart’s game that are the biggest selling points. My soft spot for him began in the bowl game from the 2023 season against Penn State. The Ole Miss offensive line stood no chance against the Nittany Lion front, yet Dart stood in the fire and continued to maintain composure in collapsing pockets.
Dart also throws a really nice deep ball, displaying outstanding touch and generally good ball placement. Add in the fact that Dart is a really nice all around athlete (recruited to play safety by several schools), and there is an interesting baseline to want to continue to develop.
The biggest drawback around Dart is his arm strength, which is below average for NFL standards. He struggles to consistently hit tighter window throws, and those windows are only going to get smaller and smaller on the NFL level. That’s a big reason why in-breaking routes are rarely utilized on his film.
The other major issue is that Dart comes from an offense that isn’t very translatable to the next level. Not only that, but Dart is also a pretty late processor. He typically gets to the right answer, but it’s rarely ever on time. When it comes to the concept of processing, there are two levels, making the correct read and making the correct read quickly enough.
Dart fails to be consistent in the latter. Having a player with a middling arm who is often late is a big sign of trouble. There is going to be a crash course in terms of processing for Dart early in his NFL career, and it is either going to allow him to develop into a high-end backup or low-end starter, or make it hard for him to be a part of long term plans.
THE TRUTH ABOUT DART
Over the past several weeks, I have exhausted all of my efforts to get as much intel into how the league views Dart as possible. From not a single source have I heard him referred to as a first round player, or even a prediction he could rise to that degree. That just hasn’t been said.
There are several who I’ve spoken to that do see him as a Day Two player, even if he doesn’t have a true Day Two grade. In the end, we are talking about a quarterback, and they always seem to rise.
Interesting enough, there are some scouts I’ve spoken to that see Dart as a borderline draftable football player. That is the extreme in this conversation, but there are a lot of people who share some of my hesitation with Dart. There is, however, a balancing act that needs to happen.
In the end, I believe that Dart is going to be a top 100 selection come April. I would prefer him to be closer to pick 100 than 33, but that aforementioned quarterback demand is very, very real. My main hope is that we don’t make Dart something that he isn’t. He is a developmental quarterback with the mental makeup and competitiveness that teams should like, but a signal caller with a smaller margin for error due to just average tools as a passer.
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