Predicting what actually happens in the NFL Draft can be a tough assignment. All of the last minute moves. The trades that seem to shake up the entire draft board. So many things change quickly. And it can be even more difficult for just one individual NFL mock draft to tell us very much at all since in reality it's just one data point in vast sea of information.

Surprisingly though, large sample mock draft data does a pretty great job predicting the future. And that's exactly what we're going to try and do in this article. Using all of the latest mock draft data from our team at A to Z Sports we built probability distributions for the Top 64 prospects in the 2025 NFL Draft (as you can see below). But what does this mean exactly? And where will all these prospects likely be drafted given what we know today? Let's dive in.

Before jumping into all the top players in the graphic above, here are a few quick helpful notes if you care about the why, what, and how of this all.

– The "early" projection for each player is probably near their ceiling, but they could certainly be selected before that mark (especially QBs who are often reached for heavily).
– The "median" is in many cases quite different from the players' overall rank, especially after pick 15. This speaks to the lack of certainty and confidence in any one player being selected that begins to emerge after the elite prospects are off the board.
– Just like the "early" projection, the "late" mark is somewhere near the floor for a prospect to be selected, but we obviously don't have all the pre-draft information (like medical issues) just yet that might have a detrimental impact on a player's draft odds.
– These probability distributions aren't perfect, but likely account for about 90% of possible outcomes for each player given what we know today. A couple nerdy statistical curve-fitting and distribution-building methods were used to get these as accurate as we can this early in the pre-draft process.

Alright, enough of the nerdy explanations. Without further ado, let's try and predict the 2025 NFL Draft future and talk through where the Top 64 prospects could be selected.

Safe First Round Projections

1. Travis Hunter, CB/WR Colorado – Early 1, Median 2, Late 13
2. Cam Ward, QB Miami – Early 1, Median 2, Late 13
3. Shedeur Sanders, QB Colorado – Early 1, Median 3, Late 14
4. Abdul Carter, EDGE Penn State – Early 1, Median 6, Late 18
5. Mason Graham, DT Michigan – Early 1, Median 6, Late 18
6. Will Johnson, CB Michigan – Early 2, Median 7, Late 19
7. Tetairoa McMillan, WR Arizona – Early 2, Median 8, Late 21
8. Kelvin Banks Jr., OT Texas – Early 3, Median 9, Late 22
9. James Pearce Jr., EDGE Tennessee – Early 4, Median 10, Late 23
10. Luther Burden, WR Missouri – Early 4, Median 12, Late 25
11. Will Campbell, OT LSU – Early 4, Median 12, Late 25
12. Malaki Starks, S Georgia – Early 6, Median 15, Late 29
13. Nic Scourton, EDGE Texas A&M – Early 6, Median 15, Late 29
14. Mykel Williams, EDGE Georgia – Early 7, Median 16, Late 30
15. Ashton Jeanty, RB Boise State – Early 8, Median 17, Late 31

These elite prospects have their entire projected 2025 NFL Draft expected selection range living within the first 32 picks. Sure, one might somehow sneak out of round one, but it's highly unlikely.

Travis Hunter, the two-way phenom Heisman Trophy winner, and the top two consensus quarterbacks Cam Ward and Shedeur Sanders are such "chalk" as the top options that their entire distribution from "early" to "late" expected draft pick lives within the first 14 picks of the 2025 NFL Draft. This tracks given Hunter's unbelievable ability, and the best quarterbacks are almost assuredly going to come off the board extremely early (per usual).

Abdul Carter's momentum continues to build in the most recent mock drafts as he's risen all the way to fourth overall alongside Michigan's elite defensive tackle Mason Graham. Conversely, Tetairoa McMillan has somehow fallen just a tad in recent data. He's still certainly "safe" for now though.

2025 NFL Three-Round Mock Draft: Shocking selections in late first and dominant edge defenders stack early rounds

First three rounds of 2025 NFL Draft dominated by Big Ten and SEC

Very Likely First Round Projections

16. Tyler Warren, TE Penn State – Early 8, Median 24, Late 40
17. Shavon Revel, CB East Carolina – Early 8, Median 24, Late 40
18. Emeka Egbuke, WR Ohio State –  Early 9, Median 25, Late 41
19. Jalon Walker, LB Georgia –  Early 9, Median 25, Late 41
20. Colston Loveland, TE Michigan – Early 9, Median 25, Late 41
21. Tyler Booker, IOL Alabama – Early 13, Median 30, Late 47
22. Kenneth Grant, DT Michigan – Early 16, Median 34, Late 52

This group is stacked with "risers" in the NFL Draft community. Unbelievably in most years, the best draft projection experts typically nail about 30 of the first round prospects who get selected at some point in round one. The "misses" are usually players that live outside this range in consensus data.

Tyler Warren is already up over 1000 yards on the season as a tight end and will get at least one more College Football Playoff opportunity to pad his profile with Penn State.

Shavon Revel is still viewed as one of the top three or four cornerbacks in this class despite his injury that forced him out for nearly the entire 2024 season.

Emeka Egbuka has a real shot to rise into the consensus WR2 slot if he finishes strong with Ohio State in the College Football Playoff. Jalon Walker still has one final shot to prove himself too as Georgia faces off against Notre Dame in the quarterfinals.

Fringe First Round Projections

23. LT Overton, EDGE Alabama: Early 20, Median 39, Late 58
24. Isaiah Bond, WR Texas: Early 20, Median 39, Late 58
25. Benjamin Morrison, CB Notre Dame: Early 21, Median 41, Late 60
26. Derrick Harmon, DT Oregon: Early 22, Median 42, Late 61
27. Jalen Milroe, QB Alabama: Early 23, Median 42, Late 61
28. Princely Umanmielen, EDGE Ole Miss: Early 24, Median 43, Late 63
29. Josh Simmons, OT Ohio State – Early 24, Median 43, Late 63
30. Aireontae Ersery, OT Minnesota – Early 24, Median 44, Late 64
31. Jonah Savaiinaea, OT Arizona – Early 24, Median 44, Late 64
32. Shemar Stewart, EDGE Texas A&M – Early 24, Median 44, Late 64
33. Walter Nolen, DT Ole Miss – Early 25, Median 45, Late 64
34. Deone Walker, DT Kentucky – Early 26, Median 46, Late 67
35. Tyleik Williams, DT Ohio State – Early 27, Median 47, Late 68

This range is where the official big boards for most NFL teams begin to diverge in most years and this class looks like it will be no exception. This tier is full of players that many scouts and experts have first round grades on, but there are certainly real question marks with every prospect in this bunch.

Edge defenders LT Overton (Alabama) and Shemar Stewart (Texas A&M) are high pedigree edge rushers with phenomenal traits, but lack the top notch production that generally accompanies typical early first round prospects profiles.

Derrick Harmon is the best pass rushing defensive tackle in the class, but struggles with missed tackles and consistency in run defense.

Isaiah Bond has special speed, but he's struggled with health (playing dinged up this year) and hasn't put it all together for a truly impressive season in his entire career.

Most of these players are super safe projections for Top 50 draft capital, with one exception given the latest data. Deone Walker (DT, Kentucky) has been sliding a bit in mock drafts as most analysts catch up to the fact that his 2024 wasn't nearly as dominant as his incredible 2023 season. He's still the same monstrous 6'6", 350-pound versatile weapon at defensive tackle, but if any player slides further it's likely Walker.

Safe First or Second Round Prospects

36. Cameron Williams, OT Texas – Early 30, Median 52, Late 73
37. Tre Harris, WR Ole Miss – Early 33, Median 56, Late 78
38. Landon Jackson, EDGE Arkansas – Early 34, Median 56, Late 78
39. Wyatt Milum, OT West Virginia – Early 36, Median 58, Late 81
40. Nick Emmanwori, S South Carolina – Early 37, Median 60, Late 83
41. Maxwell Hairston, CB Kentucky – Early 38, Median 61, Late 84

This is a fun set of prospects with unique profiles within their position groups who have all been steadily rising in most mock draft data with the exception of cornerback Maxwell Hairston (due to his shoulder injury impacting his 2024 play, most likely).

Cameron Williams is a super inexperienced offensive tackle, but has some wild size, length, and movement skills. Wyatt Milum, on the other hand, has nearly 3000 career snaps for West Virginia at right and left tackle without a sack allowed in the last three years.

Tre Harris posted 5.15 yards per route run this season for Ole Miss, proving to be the best and most efficient wide receiver in the nation for much of the 2024 season. He could sneak into the first round of the 2025 NFL Draft given the lack of elite options at wide receiver this year.

Landon Jackson is a twitched up athlete at edge rusher, but he's severely lacking in the typical pass rush rate stats department.

Nick Emmanwori might be the best athlete at safety in the class (might run a 4.3-second forty-yard dash), began his career as a freshman All-American, and yet is somehow still not a consensus first round projection. That might change in the next couple months.

Best of the Rest 2025 NFL Prospects

42. Emery Jones Jr., OT LSU – Early 41, Median 66, Late 90
43. Josh Conerly Jr. OT Oregon – Early 42, Median 66, Late 90
44. Jahdae Barron, CB Texas – Early 42, Median 67, Late 91
45. Jihaad Campbell, LB Alabama – Early 44, Median 69, Late 93
46. Denzel Burke, CB Ohio State – Early 45, Median 70, Late 94
47. Jaxson Dart, QB Ole Miss – Early 47, Median 72, Late 97
48. Tate Ratledge, IOL Georgia – Early 48, Median 73, Late 99
49. Mike Green, EDGE Marshall – Early 48, Median 74, Late 100
50. Xavier Watts, S Notre Dame – Early 48, Median 74, Late 100
51. Marcus Mbow, OL Purdue – Early 49, Median 76, Late 102
52. Donovan Ezeiruaku, EDGE Boston College – Early 50, Median 76, Late 104
53. Kyle Kennard, EDGE South Carolina – Early 51, Median 77, Late 104
54. T.J. Sanders DT South Carolina – Early 51, Median 78, Late 105
55. Azaerye'h Thomas, CB Florida State – Early 51, Median 78, Late 105
56. Kaleb Johnson, RB Iowa – Early 52, Median 79, Late 105
57. Elic Ayomanor, WR Stanford – Early 53, Median 80, Late 107
58. Jack Sawyer, EDGE Ohio State – Early 54, Median 81, Late 108
59. Evan Stewart, WR Oregon – Early 54, Median 81, Late 108
60. Donovan Jackson, IOL Ohio State – Early 54, Median 82, Late 109
61. Trey Amos, CB Ole Miss – Early 55, Median 82, Late 109
62. Omarion Hampton, RB North Carolina – Early 56, Median 84, Late 112
63. J.T. Tuimoloau, EDGE Ohio State – Early 56, Median 84, Late 112
64. Quinshon Judkins, RB Ohio State – Early 56, Median 84, Late 112

The best data scientists and experts who try and predict NFL Draft outcomes (some on staff with NFL teams) generally can successfully project just over 90% of the "players selected by pick 'x'" through the 40th overall range in most years, but things get tricky from there. This class looks quite similar in terms of wild volatility introduced shortly after pick 40.

The expected pick ranges for individual players expand beyond 50 total picks from "early" to "late" pretty quickly in this tier. That might seem extreme, but at this point the true percentage odds of any one player being selected in a specific draft slot is quite low. Plus, once beyond pick forty, generally over twenty players have some small probability of being the selection given how all the distributions overlap.

Emery Jones Jr. (OT, LSU), Denzel Burke (CB, Ohio State), and Tate Ratledge (IOL, Georgia) rank pretty high in this group, but all three have been slightly falling in recent mock drafts. Conversely, Josh Conerly Jr. (OT, Oregon), Jahdae Barron (CB, Texas), and Jihaad Campbell have all been rising so quickly they may leap up a tier here soon. Conerly and Barron could help themselves out a lot in the upcoming College Football Playoff games too.

Players like Harold Fannin Jr. (record-breaking TE for Bowling Green), Bradyn Swinson (elite rate stats edge defender for LSU), and Armand Membou (fast-rising OL for Missouri) could all find their names within the Top 64 as well given the most recent data, but they're not quite there yet.

2025 NFL Draft Top 100 Big Board Consensus Rankings heading into the College Football Playoff Quarterfinals

NFL Draft Big Boards beginning to take shape

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We'll be back with another look at 2025 NFL Draft projections and more NFL Draft coverage here at A to Z Sports soon! Follow me (@FF_TravisM) and A to Z Sports (@AtoZSportsNFL) on X for all the latest football news!