2025 NFL Mock Draft: Shedeur Sanders surprisingly drops extremely far as Jaxson Dart continues to rise and one key WR is left out
The 2025 NFL Draft is almost here, yet the debate surrounding a few of the top quarterbacks like Shedeur Sanders and Jaxson Dart is still raging on. Several key questions still remain. How many wide receivers will go round one? Will potential red flags on talents like James Pearce Jr., Walter Nolen, and Mike Green […]
The 2025 NFL Draft is almost here, yet the debate surrounding a few of the top quarterbacks like Shedeur Sanders and Jaxson Dart is still raging on. Several key questions still remain. How many wide receivers will go round one? Will potential red flags on talents like James Pearce Jr., Walter Nolen, and Mike Green shuffle up the draft board early?
I decided to take a dive into all those questions and more in a first round 2025 NFL Mock Draft based on large sample mock draft and projections data mixed in with what I would personally do to make the optimal decision for each NFL franchise. Enjoy!
1-Round 2025 NFL Mock Draft
Round One
1. Tennessee Titans: Cam Ward, QB Miami
The Tennessee Titans did a decent job hiding their intentions for quite some time, but it's now become incredibly obvious that Cam Ward is going to be the first overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft. The betting markets now suggest a probability over 99% that he is the first selection. Over 90% of mock drafts have Cam Ward as the first pick since the NFL Combine.
Cam Ward's mix of arm talent, requisite mobility, and improved efficiency as a passer throughout his career make him the safest pick to be made atop this year's NFL Draft. The Titans select their eighth quarterback via the draft in the last 20 years in an attempt to finally land a real franchise-defining talent.
2. Cleveland Browns: Travis Hunter, CB/WR Colorado
The Cleveland Browns are frankly incapable of competing until they are rid of Deshaun Watson's contract after 2026. They need to be in the business of adding the best players possible in hopes that they can get to a better position by 2027. Travis Hunter gives them the best shot at landing a quality starter on either (or both) side of the ball as an elite cornerback and wide receiver.
It's still feels unreal that Hunter scored 16 offensive touchdowns intercepted four passes, defended a dozen more, and won the Heisman as a consensus All-American. There's truly never been anyone like him.
3. New York Giants: Abdul Carter, EDGE Penn State
The Giants could certainly go quarterback in this class, but they already have Russell Wilson and Jameis Winston for this year. While it's true they also have both Brian Burns and Kayvon Thibodeaux at edge rusher, Abdul Carter would give the Giants defense scheme flexibility and another elite playmaker. Carter could play a mix of off-ball linebacker and dominant pass rusher given his diverse set of experiences at Penn State. Best player available by far.
4. New England Patriots: Armand Membou, OT Missouri
Armand Membou has emerged as perhaps the best offensive lineman in the entire 2025 NFL Draft class. Why? He hasn't allowed a sack since the middle of the 2023 season. Some of Membou's best tape has come against top competition. He posted 99th percentile athleticism at the NFL Combine. His arm length and other measurements fit the more prototypical ranges of offensive tackles than a few of the other top talents in the class.
This should be a no-brainer for a Patriots offensive line that needs to be almost completely replaced given how last year went "protecting" Drake Maye.
5. Jacksonville Jaguars: Mason Graham, DT Michigan
Mason Graham has long been considered one of the elite prospects in the 2025 NFL Draft class. He's a bit more compact than some of the best interior defensive line prospects, but his consistent havoc created up front in both the pass and run games make him a complete game wrecker. The Jaguars still need to add pass rushing talent along the defensive front despite significant investment there in recent years. This pick helps them do that.
6. Las Vegas Raiders: Will Campbell, OT LSU
The Raiders could use an upgrade in pass blocking at right tackle and either guard spot. Will Campbell's potential fit at both positions make him a top choice for the Raiders here who could certainly go a few different directions at pick six. Landing Campbell, who may be the best true pass blocker in the class would be a welcome change for new Raiders QB Geno Smith who just spent the last couple years running for his life in Seattle.
7. New York Jets: Tetairoa McMillan, WR Arizona
The Jets have to continue adding weapons around Justin Fields if he wants to have any chance as the new quarterback in New York. Garrett Wilson is an incredible weapon, but there's nothing there in the wide receiver or tight end room outside of him. Tetairoa McMillan is a monstrous alpha wide receiver who accounted for over 40% of the receiving production for Arizona last year while maintaining top tier efficiency.
8. Carolina Panthers: James Pearce Jr., EDGE Tennessee
Rumors began circulating heavily at the NFL Combine that several teams had red flagged James Pearce Jr. for his "love of football" or lack thereof. That may be true, but if a player can post back to back seasons with pass rush pressure and win rates over 20% (the only player in this class to do so) then it probably doesn't matter too much. The Panthers need a difference maker to reset their pass rush on the edge to finally replace what they lost in Brian Burns.
9. New Orleans Saints: Jaxson Dart, QB Ole Miss
Jaxson Dart posted the most efficient passing season in the nation last fall. He adds significant value with his mobility. He's an effective decision maker pre and post snap. Yes, there might be some schematic concerns for certain teams, but new head coach Kellen Moore thrives with this type of quarterback (Dak Prescott, Justin Herbert, and Jalen Hurts) who can offer special deep ball talent and excellent ability to improvise when things break down. This is a solid fit and the Saints have met with Dart a ton throughout this draft process.
10. Chicago Bears: Ashton Jeanty, RB Boise State
The Chicago Bears got absolutely nothing from their running backs last year. D'Andre Swift posted a success rate barely above 40% and 3.8 yards per carry. Roschon Johnson couldn't even crack three yards per carry. Ashton Jeanty racked up over 2700 yards from scrimmage and 30 touchdowns last season, consistently adding unbelievable value after contact. This is the kind of offensive piece that could help take some pressure off of quarterback Caleb Williams.
11. San Francisco 49ers: Will Johnson, CB Michigan
The 49ers have a few critical needs to address in this draft, but perhaps none more pressing than true outside corner now that Charvarius Ward is with the Indianapolis Colts. Johnson missed much of last season, but not before he ran back two pick-sixes and reminded everyone why he's the best true perimeter shutdown corner in the 2025 NFL Draft class.
12. Dallas Cowboys: Emeka Egbuka, WR Ohio State
Emeka Egbuka played primarily in the slot at Ohio State, operating as the team's second option throughout much of his career thanks to his sharing of targets with elite first round freaks like Marvin Harrison Jr. and Jeremiah Smith. However, back in 2022 when he was still just a second year player Egbuka posted the best wide receiver production model among all sophomores with the exception of his teammate (Marvin Harrison Jr.).
He averaged more than 2.8 yards per team pass attempt (2.5 is averaged drafted WR rate), accounted for nearly 30% of Ohio State's receiving production, and posted just shy of 0.25 EPA per team pass attempt (elite mark). The raw volume statistics won't tell you Egbuka is elite, but he's been special for three years now. This would immediately level up the Cowboys offense.
13. Miami Dolphins: Malaki Starks, S Georgia
The Dolphins lost both of their starting safeties from a year ago and need a new field general on the back end of their defense. Malaki Starks led Georgia in snaps as a true freshman and has been leading the Bulldogs' defense ever since then for Kirby Smart. He didn't test well at the NFL Combine, but the range and instincts are undeniable.
14. Indianapolis Colts: Colston Loveland, TE Michigan
The chalk selection for the Indianapolis Colts to make at tight end throughout much of the 2025 NFL Draft process has been Tyler Warren of Penn State, but Colston Loveland might be even better. In terms of a per play and rate stat basis, it took Tyler Warren five years to do what Colston Loveland did last year for Michigan while the latter was putting up with some of the worst quarterback play in the nation. Loveland is a more natural receiver who moves with greater speed and fluidity on the field and he's two years younger.
15. Atlanta Falcons: Jihaad Campbell, LB Alabama
The Atlanta Falcons must improve their defense. They were one of the worst tackling teams in the NFL last season, but drafting Jihaad Campbell could certainly help with that. Campbell has the range to cover running backs and tight ends well, then rush the passer on the very next play with high efficacy. Plus he's a 95th percentile athlete among NFL linebackers. Campbell likely won't go much higher than this given the latest intel and mock draft data, but it makes sense to land here in Atlanta.
16. Arizona Cardinals: Luther Burden, WR Missouri
The Cardinals have an elite tight end and solid WR1 in Marvin Harrison Jr., but after that things get rather ugly in the skill position department. Adding Luther Burden to the mix would give Kyler Murray a player who could add immense value on underneath targets while also being able to play any role the team asked him to fill thanks to his versatility.
Some NFL Draft fans may wonder why Texas WR, Matthew Golden still hasn't left the board. It's simple. All four wide receivers selected ahead of him are better, more productive over a larger sample, and have a more balanced profile to offer than just peak athleticism.
17. Cincinnati Bengals: Shemar Stewart, EDGE Texas A&M
The Bengals desperately need some freak athleticism opposite Trey Hendrickson and Shemar Stewart would offer that more than most any other player in NFL history based off his NFL Combine performance. He wasn't the most productive pass rusher at Texas A&M in terms of sacks, but if Stewart adds a couple layers to his game he could develop into one of the best edge defenders in the game given his traits.
18. Seattle Seahawks: Kelvin Banks Jr., OT Texas
The Seattle Seahawks had one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL last season with the exception of left tackle Charles Cross. Kelvin Banks would immediately upgrade at least three of the starting offensive line positions for Seattle. Banks played tackle almost exclusively for Texas, but with his build offensive guard might make natural sense (at least early on).
19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Jalon Walker, LB Georgia
Jalon Walker was a bit of a positionally ambiguous unicorn defender for the Georgia Bulldogs. He allowed just one touchdown in over 260 coverage snaps. He operated as the team's best pass rusher (in terms of key rate stats) for both 2023 and 2024. There were a couple missed tackle issues here and there due to his aggression, but Walker's ability to play edge rusher, off-ball linebacker, and general "stop anyone he wants" defender at Georgia was phenomenal. He's an odd scheme fit projection given his 6'1", 243-pound build, but the Buccaneers would likely plug him in to learn from future Hall of Fame linebacker, Lavonte David.
20. Denver Broncos – Omarion Hampton, RB North Carolina
The Broncos saw their young rookie quarterback Bo Nix post a surprising amount of success in year one despite completely embarrassing running back play. If they could get more burst, athleticism, and production after contact at running back they might be a dangerous offensive attack in 2025. Omarion Hampton exploded from day one at North Carolina with over 100 yards in his first career game and nearly 4.5 yards after contact last season. He is the only other likely running back to sneak into the first round of the 2025 NFL Draft beside Ashton Jeanty.
21. Pittsburgh Steelers: Shedeur Sanders, QB Colorado
The slide for Shedeur Sanders stops here with the Pittsburgh Steelers. Does he still struggle immensely with pressure? Yes. Does he offer much of any upside with his legs? No. However, Sanders' processing and ability to distribute, keeping an offense on schedule for the most part throughout his college tenure is worth a shot here in the late first round.
22. Los Angeles Chargers – Tyler Warren, TE Penn State
Another slide stops here with Tyler Warren. The Chargers saw Ladd McConkey break out last season, but still desperately need pass catchers and able blockers in an offense the likes to run. Neither Tyler Conklin nor Will Dissly are true starting tight end talents in the league. Warren could plug and play, posting one of the more impressive rookie seasons in this situation given the likely available receiving market share (he could earn) in 2025.
23. Green Bay Packers – Jahdae Barron, CB Texas
Jahdae was the best cornerback in all of college football last year. He wasn't for most of his career, but something clicked in 2024. He spent much of his career with Texas playing more of a slot defender role, but when he shifted outside in 2024 he showed off his shutdown coverage ability. The Packers could use him in the box, in the slot, or just play him where he had the most success at outside corner.
24. Minnesota Vikings: Nick Emmanwori, S South Carolina
The Vikings need to get younger and more athletic at safety. Nick Emmanwori tested as a 100th percentile athlete at the NFL Combine and has been an exceptional prospect since he was a true freshman All-American. The Vikings could go a few other directions here, but landing a player with incredible range and veteran savvy for his young age is a win.
25. Houston Texans: Tyler Booker, IOL Alabama
Tyler Booker has long been the consensus number one overall true interior offensive lineman in the 2025 NFL Draft class. His physicality, mobility for his size, and understanding of proper hand technique and leverage make him perhaps the best offensive lineman regardless of position in the class. The only reason he might make it to pick 25 is that he projects purely to play along the interior. The Texans just set fire to their offensive line this offseason, so taking the most talented remaining player in the trenches is definitely a good idea.
26. Los Angeles Rams: Josh Simmons, OT Ohio State
Josh Simmons put up perhaps the best peak offensive tackle tape in the class albeit in a small sample size last fall before getting injured against Oregon. His recovery is ahead of typical pace, so he should be moving around quite a bit by the time camp begins in July. The Rams could use a long-term replacement for Rob Havenstein on the right side of their offensive line.
27. Baltimore Ravens: Kenneth Grant, DL Michigan
The Ravens pulled some pretty incredible production out of their defensive front last season in both pass rush and run defense, but Kenneth Grant would allow the team to turn a strength into elite level dominance reminiscent of early 2000s Ravens teams. Grant is a freak athlete who can wreak havoc from any interior defensive technique while also being able to chase running backs down from behind. And on top of that he's a selfless teammate who chose to stay at Michigan when he could have gotten more money to play elsewhere. Strong fit here.
28. Detroit Lions – Mike Green, EDGE Marshall
The Lions showed last year that they need extra pass rush talent opposite Aidan Hutchinson and Mike Green would certainly do that. He racked up 17 sacks last season, posting some of the most incredible pressure and win rate stats in the nation. He may be a bit undersized compared to some other edge defenders the Lions roll out there, but his play strength and flexibility could offset any concerns there.
Yes, there were alleged off-field concerns that Mike Green has addressed throughout this NFL Draft process. That might keep him outside the first round. However, he's certainly a "knee-biting" tenacious type that looks like he would fit the Lions culture otherwise.
29. Washington Commanders: Donovan Jackson, OL Ohio State
The Commanders desperately need to improve the offensive line around new franchise quarterback Jayden Daniels as he continues to develop into a superstar. Donovan Jackson could likely start at offensive tackle or guard as a rookie given his experience at Ohio State. He was long considered a top tier interior lineman, but then when he was forced into action at tackle last season due to some injuries around him Jackson starred once he got his feet underneath him.
30. Buffalo Bills: Derrick Harmon, DT Oregon
Derrick Harmon was a wrecking ball in pass rush last season. The positional average pass rush pressure rate is around 6%. Harmon posted a pass rush pressure rate of nearly 16%. The Bills could use a game changer up front to pair well with their new acquisition, Joey Bosa. Harmon likely earns a high snap total role, with him potentially subbing out in critical short yardage situations (where the team may favor DaQuan Jones).
31. Kansas City Chiefs: Josh Conerly Jr., OT Oregon
The Chiefs have met privately with offensive tackle prospects twice as much as they have any other position in the 2025 NFL Draft. If the draft board falls this way Josh Conerly Jr. would be the easy decision as he brings with him elite pass blocking chops and much improved run game play as well. The pass blocking might have cost the Chiefs a Super Bowl last year. Getting offensive tackle right is critical. Even if he starts inside in year one this would still be the best pick.
32. Philadelphia Eagles: Walter Nolen, DL Ole Miss
Walter Nolen is another defender in this class who has some apparent "character concerns" according to multiple sources. those concerns surfaced around the NFL Combine, but the details are a bit murky. Many teams may avoid him entirely, but the Eagles usually benefit from that kind of decision in the NFL Draft.
Nolen was not a character issue when he was with Ole Miss according to Lane Kiffin and multiple teammates that A to Z Sports spoke with throughout this NFL Draft process, so the reports are certainly mixed.
If the Eagles make their selection on traits and proven production alone this pick could easily be Walter Nolen. He was the centerpiece of the best pass rush in all of college football last year for the Ole Miss Rebels. Whether he was creating the pressure himself or drawing attention away from teammates who would finish the play, Nolen was always making something happen on defense.
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We'll be back with more NFL Draft coverage here at A to Z Sports soon! Follow me (@FF_TravisM) and A to Z Sports (@AtoZSportsNFL) on X for all the latest football news!
And if you want to see why Jaxson Dart has been rising up NFL Draft boards so quickly this spring just check out his highlights in the video below!
