How early should Jaxson Dart be selected in the 2025 NFL Draft? Experts make the case for and against first round draft capital
The quarterback debate through 2025 NFL Draft season has been hotly contested and Jaxson Dart has been at the center of it all. Is he potentially the QB2 in the class and worthy of a first round draft pick? Or is he just a talented mid to late round quarterback in most draft classes?Our A […]
The quarterback debate through 2025 NFL Draft season has been hotly contested and Jaxson Dart has been at the center of it all. Is he potentially the QB2 in the class and worthy of a first round draft pick? Or is he just a talented mid to late round quarterback in most draft classes?
Our A to Z Sports team of NFL Draft analysts made the case for and against Jaxson Dart as a potential first round pick. Some have him rated extremely high. Others, not so much. Each analyst lays it all out there on to help you decide just how early Jaxson Dart should go in the 2025 NFL Draft.
The case for Jaxson Dart as an early round QB
When I spoke with multiple analytics staffers about Jaxson Dart this spring at the NFL Combine they all agreed. On paper, Jaxson Dart’s profile is tiers above any other quarterback in this class. That might sound insane on the surface, but it isn't at all. To be clear, they would all still take Cam Ward before him. However, the meaningful metrics for Dart are unbelievably impressive.
This isn’t just simple yards per play, adjusted yards per attempt, EPA per play, or total yards per game (even though Dart ranked Top 3 in all of those categories last year). Dart–even when adjusting for key schematic variables like play action and pre-snap motion percentage–put up one of the best scheme adjusted pass efficiency profiles we’ve seen in several years in 2024.
Are there concerns with the complexity of the offense he played in? Sure. Does he have a rocket arm like the best of the best in the NFL? No, but he’s still likely the best deep ball passer in the 2025 NFL Draft class. And on top of being an efficient deep ball artist, Jaxson Dart also provides value with his legs consistently. It’s quite difficult to look at Dart’s total body of work, traits, efficiency, decision making, and not come away impressed. Many have him ranked outside their top three at quarterback this year. That's a mistake. There’s a real argument for QB1 on paper. And at worst he should be QB2. – Travis May
Without a doubt the most polarizing prospect in this year’s draft class is Ole Miss QB Jaxson Dart. Draft analysts from our team and throughout the NFL world can’t seem to agree on what tier of QB prospects Dart truly belongs in. He is my third highest ranked QB in the class and he finished closer to my QB2 (Sheduer Sanders, Colorado) than he did to my QB4 (Jalen Milroe, Alabama).
Dart has above average arm strength, solid mobility and had production at Ole Miss that is going to make him desirable to many teams around the NFL whether people like it or not. Some may disagree but I think Dart offers enough upside to warrant being a first round pick for a QB needy team. On top of his enticing skill set Dart is a leader that has earned the respect of his teammates due to his overall ability and his leadership on and off the field. You definitely wouldn't have to worry about no one showing up to his birthday party (if you know you know). – Destin Adams
Look, should Jaxson Dart go in the first round? Probably not. Will he be better than Cam Ward or even Shedeur Sanders? Doubtful. But as the great Bill Parcells would say, “We can only draft what the colleges send us.” And Ole Miss is sending an athletic, dual-threat quarterback with moxie, anticipation, and the traits required to play in the NFL at a starting level. That doesn't mean he can or should play right away or will ever be a top 15 guy, but in a bad draft overall and questionable QB class, Dart is a risk I’d be willing to take early in the 2025 NFL Draft. – Rob Gregson
The case against Jaxson Dart as an early round QB
There’s a lot to like about Jaxson Dart. He is a good athlete, boasts a good frame, and is tough as nails in the pocket. Dart has also gotten better each and every season, making you hopeful for further future development. He’s also still only 21 years old, so there is a runway for development in front of him.
There’s two major issues with Dart, and they’re interrelated. From a pure arm strength perspective, and ability to generate velocity, Dart is very average but is teetering more on the below average side. That would be okay if he was a fast processor and gets through his reads quickly, but he doesn’t. When you have a quarterback who is late on throws and lacks velocity, that is a potential disaster. Without those plus passing tools to work with, he does have some real limitations. – Ryan Roberts
I know what the numbers say, and when everything is right, Dart is impressive. He looks like a Ryan Tannehill-type game with an average NFL arm, mobility, and willingness to take a hit. Give him clear reads and quality receivers, and he'll be a high-end game manager. But the NFL doesn't work like that for everyone.
The problem I have with Dart is the lack of high-level processing beyond what Ole Miss tees up for him, and how his playmaking trait just isn't really there. Most highlight tapes of Dart have the same couple of throws for a reason, but he's not consistently going above and beyond the scheme. Too often, he's unsure of his advanced reads, which should never be the case for someone as experienced as he is.
Without top-end traits and impressive mental processing, I think he's a typical Day 2 prospect who is highly reliant on his landing spot. Can he succeed? Sure. But he's also someone the fan base will be split between desiring a replacement or fiercely defending beyond reason. – Ian Valentino
Dart is such an interesting case. Each year, there is usually a prospect or two that sees people on completely opposite ends of the spectrum. Dart is certainly that player this year. His production profile is excellent, as it should be playing at Ole Miss for Lane Kiffin, who is one of the best schemers in all of football.
That is a big part of the evaluation that I don’t think gets discussed enough. Dart is often very late on his reads with one of his biggest highlight throws has him hitting Tre Harris in the third window when he could have hit the first two easily and, despite what the raw stats will tell you, he also doesn’t have an overly accurate or strong arm. He had mega production against a very poor non-conference schedule, Arkansas, and Duke in the bowl game, but when he needed to play well, he floundered, including against Florida where he did everything he could to throw the game-ending interception on the final drive to eliminate them from the playoff race.
Sure, there might be some upside to him as a rusher, but you have to teach Dart the finer points of playing the quarterback at the next level basically from scratch: true progressions, reading defenses without Kiffin gifting you open deep balls, etc. However, when you don’t play your best football against the best competition, it’s a major red flag for me, likening the situation to Drew Lock in 2019. – Tyler Forness
I think it’s tough to see the appeal of Jaxson Dart beyond a Day 3 selection. He has some decent traits, with a quick release and good touch on top of a solid ability to scramble, but the rest of his profile is uninspiring. He plays in an offense with little translation to the pros, and even in an offense as easy and wide open as that, he was a sluggish processor.
The offense moved well when he could press the easy button against low-end competition, but fell apart against better competition, and he frequently made poor decisions with the football. His mechanics in the pocket and on the move are janky, and he doesn’t throw with much anticipation. He is a major developmental project, but with an arm on the wrong side of average, I don’t see the payoff for a guy that needs that much refinement. – AJ Schulte
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If you want to check out some of the highlight plays that made Ole Miss Rebels QB Jaxson Dart one of the fastest rising prospects in the 2025 NFL Draft process make sure to watch the video below.
