NFL kickoff rule change could spark new generation of star return specialists beginning with 2024 NFL Draft
Finally! After several years of the kickoff play largely being rendered useless, the NFL has voted on and approved drastic changes to bring excitement back to one of the most unique plays in all of sports. The NFL's official announcement of the changes to the kickoff (beginning this fall) came on Tuesday morning as the […]
Finally! After several years of the kickoff play largely being rendered useless, the NFL has voted on and approved drastic changes to bring excitement back to one of the most unique plays in all of sports.
The NFL's official announcement of the changes to the kickoff (beginning this fall) came on Tuesday morning as the league will be implementing the kickoff model created and utilized by the XFL. But what does it all mean? How will the kickoff change exactly? And who could be the next generation of stars to benefit?
Jeff Darlington's post below has the most succinct and detailed description of the new kickoff rules (the onside kick method mentioned still not officially approved or announced).
The new rules certainly sound fair, and make it a much more viable option for teams to opt for a return rather than letting the ball roll into the end zone, but just how much more often can we expect teams to return a kick?
If we look at kickoff data from the 2023 XFL season and compare it to the NFL, it's clear that teams may end up returning kickoffs far more often.
The average XFL team returned more than four kickoffs per game last year. The NFL? Just barely more than one per contest by each team. That could mean that on average we see six more total kickoff return attempts per game in 2024 and beyond! Records will be broken. Return specialist stars will be born. The return of the return game is here!
But the question is, which young up-and-coming return specialists will be the face(s) of the next great kickoff return generation?
Typically, NFL teams reserve kickoff return duties to backup wide receivers or running backs. Among the 45 NFL players who logged at least five kickoff return attempts last year 26 were wide receivers, 16 were running backs, and three were cornerbacks. More than half of them were still on their rookie contracts, with over a third being first or second year players.
So, given that rookies and second year players are quite often the kick returners, which incoming rookies could "kickoff" their careers with the best odds to perhaps rewrite the record books?
Top Incoming Rookie Kick Return Stars
The 2024 NFL Draft class has several top notch return specialists for both kickoff and punt returns. Here are the 11 prospects with at least 200 total return yards in their final college season arranged by primary return type and likely NFL Draft order:
Kickoff Returns
- Xavier Legette, WR South Carolina
- Tyrone Tracy Jr., RB Purdue
- Malik Washington, WR Virginia
- Isaac Guerendo, RB Louisville
- Keilan Robinson, RB Texas
- Lideatrick Griffin, WR Mississippi State
Punt Returns
- Xavier Worthy, WR Texas
- Cooper DeJean, CB Iowa
- Keon Coleman, WR Florida State
- Ainias Smith, WR Texas A&M
- Daequan Hardy, CB Penn State
Given that the new kickoff method will be a whole new breed of kickoff form for professional football there's a great chance all 11 of these prospects get to try their hand on returns as rookies.
Xavier Worthy's 4.21-second forty-yard dash speed on kickoffs (and punts) would be instant must-watch entertainment as he led all college football players in punt return yardage in 2023.
Xavier Legette's 99th percentile Athletic Composite Score in on kickoffs would be a tantalizing proposition as well. Legette only returned 10 kickoffs last season for South Carolina, but he did average nearly 22 yards per attempt.
However, some of the top draft prospects may not end up returning too many kicks. Since both Xaviers, Keon Coleman, and Cooper DeJean are all projected to be round one and two picks they may be immediate starters on one specific side of the ball instead of returning kicks.
The real return specialist super star candidates among this bunch who were efficient returners in college, are locks to get drafted and make an NFL roster, and should slot in as a team's return specialist right away are:
- Ainias Smith
- Daequan Hardy
- Keilan Robinson
- Tyrone Tracy Jr.
Ainias Smith returned over 100 total kicks while at Texas A&M (mostly punts), including two for touchdowns (including a 95-yarder). When I asked Smith about his favorite plays from his career at the Senior Bowl, two of his top three were returns:
Ainias Smith is an electric do-it-all weapon who can play receiver, running back, and returner. He could be the top candidate to star long-term as he has so many ways he can stick to rosters in the NFL over the next decade.
Daequan Hardy scored two punt return touchdowns last year, and had another called back due to penalty. He has limited kickoff return experience, but his 4.38-speed could allow him to go off returning at the next level. He also likely slots in as an NFL team's dime package defensive back, so he won't likely have a very high snap count with the starters, allowing him to focus on returns.
Tyrone Tracy Jr. is perhaps the best bet among running back prospects to become a star returner. Tracy is a converted wide receiver whose versatility and 89th percentile A to Z Sports Athletic Composite make him a dangerous weapon anywhere he lines up on the roster. His 98-yard kickoff return touchdown last year showed he has real special teams potential.
Keilan Robinson has the most experience on kickoff returns specifically among top rookie specialists with more than 40 attempts. He didn't always break off the biggest plays but he was perhaps the most consistent, averaging nearly 24 yards per return for his career.
It's almost a guarantee that one of these incoming rookies will become the next big return specialist star who defines the next generation in the NFL. Which one do you think it will be? Find me on X (Twitter) @FF_TravisM if you want to share your pick! And be looking for more unique NFL coverage like this all year long!
