Spencer Rattler wins Senior Bowl MVP, but what does that mean for his 2024 NFL Draft stock?
Spencer Rattler wrapped up a remarkable week down in Mobile, Alabama by winning the Senior Bowl MVP of the game on Saturday. He didn't put up crazy numbers since the quarterbacks split time at the helm, but he did complete all four of his passes for 65 yards and a touchdown. His 29-yard touchdown connection […]
Spencer Rattler wrapped up a remarkable week down in Mobile, Alabama by winning the Senior Bowl MVP of the game on Saturday. He didn't put up crazy numbers since the quarterbacks split time at the helm, but he did complete all four of his passes for 65 yards and a touchdown.
His 29-yard touchdown connection to Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint (Georgia) was perhaps the most impressive play of the game, showing off the arm talent that had many projecting him to be an first round draft pick a few years ago.
After the game, when asked what was next Rattler simply stated, "Keep working." He certainly put in some work this past week, clearly looking like at least the third best quarterback at the Senior Bowl. But what is really next for Rattler? And after a strong week just how high will he be selected in the 2024 NFL Draft?
Rattler's Journey
Rattler has had his fair share of ups and downs throughout his still quite young quarterback career. He was the highest touted quarterback in the nation among all players in the 2019 recruiting class. And although he was likely very excited initially to be feature in Netflix's "QB1: Beyond the Lights" documentary series, he was inevitably portrayed very poorly in it, negatively impacting how he was perceived by millions of fans and football staffers across the nation.
However, Rattler silenced any character critics in his first starting season at Oklahoma, throwing for over 3000 yards, 28 touchdowns, and leading the Sooners to a 9-2 season during the pandemic year. And his production wasn't just volume-driven like many college quarterbacks. It was highly efficient, full of great throws like the one in this video below.
Compared to every starting quarterback since 2016, Rattler posted 94th percentile Scheme Adjusted Pass Efficiency (pass efficiency adjusted for things that artificially boost stats like play action, average depth target, and motion) in his first year as a starter. Immediately thereafter every NFL mock draft had him slated to be a Top 5 pick in 2022. But then it seemed he regressed.
He ended up getting benched the following year, losing his starting job to Caleb Williams, and transferring to South Carolina follow his former offensive coordinator Shane Beamer. But even in a new home with an offense that seemingly fit him Rattler struggled, throwing 12 interceptions in 2022, posting his worst season by far.
Last fall it looked like he was set up to fail again after losing his best receiver due to injury as well as his best tight end (Jaheim Bell) and running back (MarShawn Lloyd) to the transfer portal. However, instead of struggling, Rattler had his best season since 2020, connecting with talented receiver Xavier Legette all season long.
But what's next for young Rattler now that he's bounced back in 2023 and won Senior Bowl MVP?
Where Does Rattler Get Drafted?
When we break down Rattler's 2023 as a whole, it was a good year, but Rattler still only ranked 30th among college quarterbacks in terms of his QB Modeling Composite (which combines 15+ meaningful quarterback production metrics into one singular score). And while his bounce back to the 70th percentile in Scheme Adjusted Pass Efficiency is good, it's not typical for quarterbacks who see early round NFL Draft capital.
Rattler did prove himself all week long at the Senior Bowl, despite having a rough start on day one in Mobile. And he did garner plenty of positive attention thanks to throws like this one here.
But is it enough for him to pass Caleb Williams (USC), Drake Maye (UNC), Heisman winner Jayden Daniels (LSU), Michael Penix Jr. (Washington), Bo Nix (Oregon), or national champion J.J. McCarthy (Michigan)?
It seems he's clearly done enough to prove that he is the best quarterback in this class after those top six, but given his inconsistent performance throughout his career overall it seems unlikely he'll be a first or second round signal caller.
His analytical profile as a passer typically fits early day three NFL Draft selections, but his strong showing at the Senior Bowl, and the likely hype train that will follow now may just earn him round three capital in the 2024 NFL Draft.
