The biggest reason Ashton Jeanty could fall in the 2025 NFL Draft despite being an undisputed top-10 player in the class
If Ashton Jeanty falls on draft day, here’s the reason why
There's no disputing the fact that Boise State RB Ashton Jeanty is one of the best football players in the entire 2025 NFL draft. The Heisman runner-up ran for 2601yds and 29 TDs in 2024, averaging a blistering 7.0 YPC. He was the engine that made the Boise St. offense go, and he was the primary reason they made a run to the first ever 12-team College Football Playoff. Nobody would question you having him amongst your top-10 grades in the draft, and most wouldn't sniff at a top-5 designation either.
But Jeanty is, in fact, a running back. Which means no matter how dynamic an athlete he is, no matter how can't-miss he is, no matter how beloved by every team in the entire NFL he is; where to actually draft him is bound to be complicated. And hotly-debated. And highly scrutinized. That's just the way some of these non-premium positions work.
We've seen some highly-drafted backs work out in recent memory. Most notably, the Falcons and Lions don't regret their choices to take Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs early in the first round a couple years ago. The common sentiment on drafting a RB high seems to be shifting away from blanket disapproval and towards more situational understanding. Particularly when a player can be a dynamic element in the passing game, it's viewed as more reasonable.
But none of this is the biggest reason why Jeanty is liable to fall in the draft. The real reason why he could fall has to do with the rest of the class: it's the opportunity cost each team is going to have to weigh for themselves when Jeanty is available and they're on the clock.
You see, Jeanty is clearly the headliner of the 2025 RB draft class, but there is a fantastic group of options behind him. This isn't a situation where the clear top prospect in a position group dwarfs the rest of the field. Behind Jeanty at 9th overall on the Consensus Big Board are 6 more top-100 running backs. There are 10 total RBs slotted within the first 150 picks.
This running back class is loaded. There are more than enough capable starters of every style and flavor, and unlike Jeanty, many of them will be available in the 3rd round or perhaps even later.
Take just the top 3 consensus players at the position, who are all projected to be top-50 picks. When a team like Dallas is considering Ashton Jeanty in the 1st round, the idea of landing North Carolina RB Omarion Hampton or Ohio State RB TreVeyon Henderson on Day 2 is going to be undeniably appetizing. That's the thing about most of the league: they all have at least 1 or 2 serious needs to address. And running back is among the easiest to solve in the later rounds. So are you willing to pass on a 1st round tackle, or edge rusher, or receiver, or cornerback, or defensive tackle? Just to take Ashton Jeanty instead of a player who is maybe 20% worse as a prospect but a certified NFL starter on Day 2?
That's the question every team will ask themselves. And in this loaded class, it's as tricky as ever to answer.
