The best NFL Draft evaluators learn from their past mistakes, focus on them, and develop a deeper understanding for why and how they missed. For me, a position that was very inconsistent for me scouting early on was the EDGE position, in which we can throw both even-front defensive ends and odd-front outside linebackers into the same bucket. The majority of conversation is going to center over projection, upside and when to bet on traits.

You will always hear the phrase in scouting, “bet on traits”, and I’m a big believer in it. That’s especially true on the EDGE. People don’t talk about it enough but the half steps and half second intervals we talk about that decide football games are real. That’s especially true when you are playing against some of the offensive tackles we see on the NFL level.

We now have offensive tackles who are over 6-6, 300 pounds, with 34-inch arms that are running in the 4.7s in the forty-yard dash. Some of them I still need convincing that they were born on the planet Earth. These guys are the top of the top percent of athletes out there pound for pound.

When you are trying to win either an upfield or inside shoulder, the recovery and range of some of these mutants are absolutely unbelievable. That’s why you will hear scouts talk about twitch and explosiveness so much with pass rushers because the margin for error is so small when trying to beat them to a spot. It’s even harder to disengage from them when they do fit you inside.

While there is still a place for the nuanced hand winners who lack thresholds, but can still win with their plan, hand usage, and effort, those players are few and far between in today's game. The best sack artists in the league are freak shows. Those traits matter now more than ever, especially as the game continues to get more and more wide open,

Thinking back to when I first started evaluating, I was a sucker for that hand play. I didn’t put enough stock into the length and twitch off of the line. That’s why players like Jarvis Jones and Derek Barnett were players that I valued too highly. If you can’t beat an offensive lineman to a spot, you most likely can’t win.

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When should you bet?

With that being said, you also can’t go overboard with betting on traits all of the time. Scouting is an art not a science, and part of that is understanding when risks are worth taking. There are two pretty recent examples that could serve to help understand what you’re looking for when evaluating EDGEs that haven’t quite become big producers yet.

One is current Houston Texans pass rusher Danielle Hunter, who has had a stellar career so far in the NFL. Hunter spent the first eight seasons of his career with the Minnesota Vikings, where he was selected to four Pro Bowls and collected 87.5 career sacks. Hunter also tallied 108 tackles for loss during that time, as well as 134 more quarterback hits.

If you think back to when Hunter came out of LSU in the 2015 NFL Draft, he was viewed as a toolsy player who needed a ton of development. That caused Hunter, who had some of the highest upside in the class, to fall to the third round. A big reason for that was production. Hunter had just 4.5 sacks in 38 career games for the Tigers.

Clearly the pass rush profile hadn’t rounded out when Hunter was coming out, which brought some major questions, and honestly, it’s understandable. One thing that people may not have considered enough was that Hunter did have some nice awareness as a player. Despite the pass rush being inconsistent, he did record 73 total tackles, 13 tackles for loss, and six pass breakups during his final season in Baton Rouge.

NFL coaching is there to help improve nuance as a pass rusher, including the plan and hand usage. Those things can improve, especially when we have a player who has shown some natural feel as a football player. Add in the fact that Hunter was just a 20-year old and we probably, as a collective, should have given him more grace as a prospect.

In another example, we had a similar conversation with current Baltimore Ravens pass rusher Odafe Oweh a couple of years back, who was selected in the first round of the 2021 NFL Draft class. Oweh, who is a freakshow talent, was a very divisive prospect. That’s due to the fact that he had almost no production with the Nittany Lions, failing to record a single sack in seven games during his final season.

The NFL decided to ignore that lack of production, and so far it hasn’t worked out very well for the Ravens. In 47 career games, Oweh has recorded just 15.5 sacks and 18 tackles for loss. There is still time to figure it out and develop him, but there is obviously a reason to have doubts right now.

A big reason some may have missed on Oweh, in the opposite direction, is not valuing that awareness and feel for the game as much as Hunter had showcased. In Oweh’s entire Penn State career, he had less career tackles (63) than Hunter had in just his final year. His career tackle for loss number (14) was also just one more than Hunter had that last season. You weren’t betting on a good football player figuring out one part of his game. In Oweh’s case, you were hoping an athlete could become a great football player.

That’s where the cautionary tale goes. Betting on athletic gifts on the EDGE is needed, and you need to understand the teachables and unteachables. In order to eliminate your misses, focusing on the substance as prospect brings to the table is important. Deciphering that floor allows you to find a place to land. A strong foundation, along with some tools to continue building, is the best way to project to the future.

Now get ready for the 2025 NFL Draft class. Players like Mykel Williams (Georgia) are once again going to put this process to the test.